Northwest Division | Odds, Tips & Picks

OKC taking a stranglehold in the Northwest

OKC Thunder continue to dominate the Northwest division with now a six game winning streak, taking their PCT to 81%. Reflected in the NBA Futures betting markets which now sees them at odds of 4.50 to take the big prize.

We mentioned in interesting NBA betting market in our recent update of the Atlantic Division regarding which NBA Division will the NBA Champions come from. The Northwest is currently trading at 3.30

OKC now odds of 4.50 to win the NBA

OKC are flying, Utah Jazz are crashing

Oklahoma City Thunder are surging clear in the Northwest Division. Not only that, they are now number one seeds in the Western Conference and are as short as 5.50 to be crowned NBA Champions for 2024/25.

Compare that to the floundering Utah Jazz with a .222 PCT and a 2-13 record against Western Conference teams.

Jazz on the ropes in the Northwest Division

Nuggets, Timberwolves and Trail Blazers are all travelling 'reasonably' well so far.

Northwest Division

OKC play Lakers, Rockets and Jazz in the next three games. Don't be surprised if the Thunder stand 17-4 after that.

Current NBA Northwest Division betting odds:

Denver Nuggets \\

Minnesota Timberwolves \\

Utah Jazz \\

Oklahoma City Thunder \\

Portland Trailblazers \\

Current standings

Here we have a breakdown of all the teams in the running to win the NBA's Northwest Division in the 2022/’23 NBA season. The winners will be awarded the Sam Jones Trophy

At The Jump Hub, we have assessed their chances as we see them and will update this article regularly to see if we were right. We will post statistical updates and any breaking news or results as they come up.

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*See foot of article for the key to terms used

General update: 30th Mar 2023

With the biggest winning % (PCT), of any in the competition, the Denver Nuggets have utterly dominated the Northwest Division this season. They have won more home games than any other team, except the Memphis Grizzlies and if they could have improved their away form a little, they might have topped the whole league by close of play.

• A 68.0% winning percentage puts them 3rd overall in the NBA

The Minnesota Timberwolves look set to clinch a berth in the NBA Play-In series at the very least and there is still an outside chance that they might qualify for the Playoffs outright if they can catch and overtake the Golden State Warriors or the LA Clippers. But that seems unlikely somehow. The best that the Timberwolves can manage, if they win their remaining 5 games, is 53.6%. And that's easier said than done. They might fancy their chances against the two integrity-free tanking teams they have to face:

• Portland Trailblazers

• San Antonio Spurs

But they also have to face much tougher opposition that will actually be trying to win:

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Brooklyn Nets

• New Orleans Pelicans

Each of them is locked in a tight battle to remain in the Play-In places, or in Brooklyn's case to retain their automatic qualification spot (they are currently in that crucial 6th spot in the Eastern Conference. So only time will tell if the Timberwolves have what it takes to prove themselves when it comes to the crunch The problem is that it is out of their hands even if they do and the teams above them do what is necessary to keep them at bay. We shall see...

A few words on the scourge of deliberate tanking

Before we go any further, it saddens us to have to address the elephant in the room. Deliberate tanking is easily our least favourite aspect of the NBA and one that we wish we didn't have to think about. For those of you unaware of what it means, to put it very briefly, the way that the NBA is structured means that the worst-performing teams have a better chance of picking the best players in the following season's NBA Draft.

Sadly, we live in a cynical world where blatant cheating is tolerated and often even encouraged. If it cannot be proven and will result in an advantage then some teams clearly feel that it is worth the loss of integrity and dignity. That it is worth snubbing their nose to their own fans and admitting that they are too shitty to achieve anything without cheating. That they would rather field weakened sides and lose on purpose than accept the task ahead of them and get those same noses to the grindstone instead. Even with the, clearly inadequate measures that the NBA introduced and the new lottery system that makes it harder to guarantee an advantage, it still exists.

It is too complicated and depressing for us to try and figure out which teams are engaged in this lowest-of-the-low behaviour. It should be pretty obvious. We'll mention it for sure if it's beyond question. But, otherwise, we have decided to write these articles as though tanking didn't exist. As though we live in a world where winning through hard work and dedication is the only goal.

Pleasing the fans and doing your absolute best to represent them with honour at all times should be a given. Tanking is for scumbags and suckers. We hope franchises that deliberately set out to lose games wither and turn to dust.

However, for the purposes of these articles, we will assess the teams in front of us on their merits and pretend that there is still some integrity in professional sports.

Sam Jones Trophy

General update: 15th Mar 2023

Even with 4 losses on the bounce, the Denver Nuggets have annihilated the rest of the teams in the Northwest Division when it comes to their win %

• Their nearest rivals, the Minnesota Timberwolves are a full 16% behind them

Bookmakers effectively give zero chance of them being caught and they remain with NBA Northwest Division betting odds @ 1.01 with Minnesota next @ 101.00

General update: 2nd Feb 2023

• With a 68.6% win rate, the betting markets are rightly convinced that the Denver Nuggets will finish atop the Northwest Division this season. Their NBA Northwest Division bettings odds are @ 1.01. That's a 99% certainty

• Their closest competition in the division (Minnesota Timberwolves) have a paltry 50.9% win rate

• Denver are also the favourites to take the whole Western Conference with NBA Western Conference betting odds @ 4.00

General update: 27th Jan 2023

• Damian Lillard scored 60 points in the Trailblazer's key matchup against Utah Jazz, helping them to win the game 134-124

General update: 26th Jan 2023

• Minnesota are without 2 of their top scorers, Towns and Gobert. The latter is a particularly difficult one for the Timberwolves as Rudy Gobert collects the majority of their rebounds. The 3rd most in the whole NBA in fact with 11.6 per game.

• All of the teams in the division, except the Timberwolves won their last game

Denver Nuggets \\

NBA Northwest Division betting odds progression:

@ 1.71 — @ 1.83 — @ 1.56 — @ 1.09 — @ 1.05 — @ 1.03

Sep 8th — Oct 30th — Nov 18th — Dec 31st — Jan 6th/10th — Jan 16th

@ 1.01 \\

Jan 26th/Feb 27th/Mar 15th

NBA Western Conference betting odds: @ 4.00

NBA Championship betting odds: @ 8.00

• Record: 51-24

• Streak: 4 wins

• 32-6 at home

• 19-18 on the road

Current table positions:

• Northwest Division: 1st

• Western Conference: 1st

• NBA: 3rd

The betting markets are so certain that the Denver Nuggets are going to win that their NBA Northwest Division betting odds are @ 1.01

Effectively they are 99.5% certain

As we plough headlong into the second half of the season, it's not difficult to see why. The Nuggets have won 70.8% of their matchups so far:

• 22-4 at home

• 12-11 on the road

A rather remarkable record and one that no team in the Northwest Division can even see from where they are. The nearest any team can get is Utah Jazz with exactly 50%

The Northwest Division is actually the most competitive in the league when it comes to the 4 other teams. They are all within 3.2% of each other in terms of winning percentages.

What are the Denver Nuggets doing so well?

Well, they score more field goals per game (43.9) than any other team in the Northwestern Division with a much better conversion rate (50.1%) That puts them right at the top of the NBA in that stat, alongside the Brooklyn Nets.

In fact, Denver are the first team that we have come across during these articles that are both relatively successful and have more than 6 players scoring double-figures in points every time they play. It sounds strange, but most of the teams who can boast this are towards the bottom end of their respective divisions and conferences. A bizarre phenomena that we are struggling to comprehend and explain, but a real one nonetheless

• Although the Nuggets attempt the fewest 3-point shots (30.9), they convert those better than the others too (39.9%)

• They give the most assists and the least fouls.

All in all, they're in pretty good shape.

But let's be honest, the main reason that the Denver Nuggets are on fire this season is the extraordinary:

• Nikola Jokić

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 42 \ GS: 42 \ MP: 33.4 \ PTS: 25.1 \ FG%: 62.9* \ 3P%: 37.8 \ FT%: 81.8 \ TRB: 11.0 \ AST: 9.9* \ STL: 1.4 \ BLK: 0.6 \ TOV: 3.4 \ PF: 2.8

*Career high

He leads the Nuggets in:

• Points

• Rebounds

• Assists

• Steals

Jokić has played 10 games in January of 2023 so far.

He has triple-doubles in 7 of them

It would have been 8 if he'd given 1 more assist against Phoenix. Lazy...

His conversion rate for field goals (62.9%) is superb. The best of his career to date. He is, quite simply, a game-changer and one that the Nuggets' fans must thank their lucky stars for every time they play.

Except when he's injured...

Then they must have their hearts in their mouths.

Nikola Jokić, having been sidelined for 2 games with a hamstring issue, said that he could still feel the injured left hamstring slightly. But that didn't stop him from racking up his 15th triple-double of the season.

• 25 points, 11-rebounds, and 10-assists

The man is a machine...

Denver lost the second of those games that Jokić missed. A shock loss to the struggling Oklahoma Thunder and a 9-straight game winning streak was sadly (for them) brought to an end. Thunder fans were presumably jubilant as they're not out of the running just yet. More of that later...

Any causes for concern?

Denver have the worst free-throw record in the Northwestern Division, hitting just 74.9% of them.

When we take Jokić out of the equation, their playmaking options look slightly limited. They have a few players that can provide opportunities for teammates, Jamal Murray being the best of them with 5.7. But none that comes close to him.

So this looks like being a good season for the Nuggets. It remains to be seen how far they can progress in the NBA Playoffs this time around. They will be hoping to go a site further than the first round like last time. Although they did come up against the eventual winners, the Golden State Warriors in their defence.

We shall see

Portland Trailblazers \\

NBA Northwest Division betting odds progression:

@ 9.50 — @ 3.50 — @ 13.00 — @ 17.00 — @ 19.00 — @ 61.00

Jul 29th — Nov 16th — Jan 6th/10th — Jan 11th — Jan 16th — Jan 26th

@ 91.00 — @ 151.00 — @ 201.00 — @ 1001.00 — @ 401.00 \\

Jan 30th — Feb 14th — Feb 17th — Feb 27th — Mar 15th

NBA Western Conference betting odds: @ 401.00

NBA Championship betting odds: @ 501.00

• Record: 32-43

• Streak: 3 losses

• 17-21 at home

• 15-22 on the road

Current table positions:

• Northwest Division: 5th

• Western Conference: 13th

• NBA: 25th

The Portland Trailblazers are not a particularly impressive team no matter how you look at it. But it is their misfortune to have to ply their trade in the most competitive division in the league. If they were in the Southeast Division, a win rate of 46.8% would be enough to see them in 3rd place. In the Northwest Division, it puts them dead last.

What do the Trailblazers excel at?

Of all the teams in the Northwest Division, the Portland Trailblazers:

• Concede the fewest points per game (112.6)

Their record in matchups this season is as follows:

• 13-10 at home

• 10-15 on the road

Not too dire compared to some teams. They can still work hard and make the NBA Play-In tournament if things go their way. From 12th place, they will have to pass Oklahoma and Golden State to do so. If they were in the Eastern Conference, they would already be in that coveted 10th position.

The Trailblazers are in the middle of a run of 6 home games, the last of which they won easily 147-127 against the San Antonio Spurs.

Next up are Utah, Toronto, then Atlanta (Go Hawks!)

Where do they struggle?

When compared with the other teams in the Northwest Division (which we have already established is very competitive if we omit the Denver Nuggets) the Trailblazers:

• Score the fewest points (113.3)

• Attempt the fewest field goals (84.3)

• Score the fewest field goals (40.4)

• Make the fewest steals (6.6)

• Perform the fewest blocks (4.2)

• Joint-fewest assists (24.3)

So, not a glowing set of stats by any means. Portland have the lowest number of players scoring double-figures per game that we have yet come across. Just 4 of them. Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant do get excellent amounts (21.9 & 21.2 respectively) but there is a serious lack of any strength in depth.

Top of the tree for scoring points in Portland, 8th in the whole NBA, they have the indispensable:

• Damian Lillard

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 35 \ GS: 35 \ MP: 35.7 \ PTS: 29.3 \ FG%: 45.1 \ 3P%: 36.5 \ FT%: 90.1 \ TRB: 3.9 \ AST: 7.4 \ STL: 0.9 \ BLK: 0.3 \ TOV: 3.2 \ PF: 1.9

*Career high

The career-long Portland player remains a key player for them in his 11th season there. He is back to his very best form in terms of assists, matching his best season (2020/'21) and he has been unstoppable over the last few games:

• 33 assists across 3 games

• 67-2 free throws across the last 6 games

• Averaging 32.1 points per game for January

Lillard is almost supernaturally good at free throws. He finds himself in the rarefied air of an above 90% average. One of only 12 players that can breathe it. Led by the freakish Kevin Durant with 93.4%

Overall, the Portland Trailblazers are not in awful shape

They just desperately need more point scorers. Their points differential is actually in the black right now at +0.5 but it does not always mean that a team is performing well when they score slightly more than they concede.

They don't have any crucial players out with injury but will start to feel the pinch very quickly if they lose even one of those top 3 points takers.

Fingers crossed for them that it doesn't come to that...

Utah Jazz \\

NBA Northwest Division betting odds progression:

@ 36.00 — @ 151.00 — @ 6.50 — @ 12.00 — @ 23.00 — @ 41.00

Sep 1st — Oct 23rd — Nov 16th — Dec 4th — Dec 31st — Jan 6th/10th

@ 34.00 — @ 41.00 — @ 76.00 — @ 61.00 — @ 101.00 — @ 201.00

Jan 11th — Jan 16th — Jan 26th — Jan 30th — Feb 14th — Feb 17th

@ 501.00 — @ 401.00 \\

Feb 27th — Mar 15th

NBA Western Conference betting odds: @ 501.00

NBA Championship betting odds: @ 501.00

• Record: 35-40

• Streak: 4 losses

• 22-16 at home

• 13-24 on the road

Current table positions:

• Northwest Division: 4th

• Western Conference: 12th

• NBA: 22nd

Utah Jazz have been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the last few weeks.

6-5 in their last 11 games, coming after a run of 6 losses.

Their full record so far this season is as follows:

• 17-9 at home

• 9-17 on the road

Very decent at home. The exact, diametric opposite on the road...

They will be hoping to take advantage of this home form over the next 5 games, which are all set to take place at their home stadium, the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City.

Their new arrival this season is proving to be a huge investment, leading for both points and rebounds per game. We're talking about the excellent:

• Lauri Markkanen

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 45 \ GS: 45 \ MP: 34.2* \ PTS: 24.8* \ FG%: 52.2* \ 3P%: 43.0* \ FT%: 87.2* \ TRB: 8.8 \ AST: 1.8 \ STL: 0.6 \ BLK: 0.6 \ TOV: 1.8* \ PF: 2.1

*Career high

From the 11th of January, Markkanen had a run of 5 games where he amassed a total of 62 rebounds and 134 points. The Jazz won all but one of those games. A valiant effort against a team 12 places above them, the Brooklyn Nets.

Cut to Markkanen's last outing, where he inexplicably took just 4 rebounds, and they lost that one to the Portland Trailblazers.

The team are clearly affected by how he performs but they do have some strength in depth in certain areas:

• 6 players averaging double-figures in points scored per game

Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler both have better rebounds per minute but only get 24 and 21 minutes per game respectively so far. They certainly have the capacity to replace Markkanen should injuries become an issue.

We are tempted to think that Kessler would be easily their highest rebounder if given half the chance. The rookie has forced his way all the way to 3rd favourite with his NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds, after being totally out of the running a few weeks ago. He clearly has lots of potential.

As for Vanderbilt, well he looks to have some serious playmaking potential to go with his rebounding skills and looks rock-solid right across the board.

What else are the Jazz doing right?

Like all the other teams in the Northwest Division, the Utah Jazz have a positive points differential (+1.2)

we talked about them having some strength in terms of scoring and that is reflected by them taking the most points per game in the Northwest Division (117.5)

But they also concede the most (116.3)

• They attempt and score the most 3-point shots (3P) with 14.3

• Most offensive rebounds (ORB) at 11.7

• Joint most blocks (BLK with 5.2

Leading the way for Utah Jazz in 2 other key statistics is:

• Mike Conley

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 40 \ GS: 39 \ MP: 29.6 \ PTS: 10.3 \ FG%: 39.1 \ 3P%: 36.6 \ FT%: 80.0 \ TRB: 2.5 \ AST: 7.6* \ STL: 1.1 \ BLK: 0.2 \ TOV: 1.6 \ PF: 2.2

*Career high

In Mike Conley's last 2 outings, he has a record of:

• 8 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists

• 4 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists

Conley is among the only players that the Jazz have to rely on when it comes to reliable playmakers. The next best is Jordan Clarkson with 4.3 per game. After that, it's very slim pickings indeed...

The Northwest Division is tight once you rule out the chances of anybody catching the Denver Nuggets. The team in dead last, the Portland Trailblazers are only 10.5 games behind the top, whereas 2nd-placed Minnesota are 8 games behind it.

Just a 5% range of win percentages covers all 4 of the trailing teams.

It is also tight across the middle of the Western Conference. A jump in their win % of just 3% for the team in 11th place (Oklahoma City Thunder) would see them catapult all the way into 4th place! It is still all to play for in the Northwest Division and the Western Conference.

Bring it on

Minnesota Timberwolves \\

NBA Northwest Division betting odds progression:

@ 1.55 — @ 2.80 — @ 9.00 — @ 12.00 — @ 15.00 — @ 81.00

Aug 5th — Oct 31st — Nov 13th — Dec 1st — Dec 22nd — Jan 2nd

@ 46.00 — @ 51.00 — @ 46.00 — @ 61.00 — @ 46.00 — @ 81.00

6th/10th Jan — 11th Jan — 16th Jan — Jan 26th — Jan 30th — Feb 14th/17th

@ 101.00 \\

Feb 27th/Mar 15th

NBA Western Conference betting odds: @ 51.00

NBA Championship betting odds: @ 101.00

• Record: 39-37

• Streak: 4 wins

• 21-17 at home

• 18-20 on the road

Current table positions:

• Northwest Division: 2nd

• Western Conference: 7th

• NBA: 14th

Sitting in a decent position in the league, the Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the very few teams to have 7 players scoring in double-figures per game

• Anthony Edwards

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 52 \ GS: 52 \ MP: 36.5* \ PTS: 24.7* \ FG%: 46.4* \ 3P%: 37.7* \ FT%: 77.4 \ TRB: 6.1* \ AST: 4.5* \ STL: 1.7* \ BLK: 0.6 \ TOV: 3.3* \ PF: 2.6*

*Career high

Now, if we're asking these young athletes to give it their all and leave nothing out on the court, we cannot fail but be impressed with stats like that. Career highs in almost every category, Anthony Edwards has improved consistently across his 3 seasons with the Timberwolves. it is no surprise to us that he gets the heaviest minutes of any player in the team right now.

In his last outing alone he took:

• 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists

He turns the ball over more than we'd like but then it seems that all the players who are heavily involved in games have similar issues.

Still not back to his best form in his first season since leaving Utah to join Minnesota but holding solid and collecting plenty of his trademark rebounds, we have:

• Rudy Gobert

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 43 \ GS: 43 \ MP: 30.8 \ PTS: 13.3 \ FG%: 67.2 \ 3P%: 0.0 \ FT%: 67.3 \ TRB: 11.7 \ AST: 0.9 \ STL: 0.8 \ BLK: 1.3 \ TOV: 3.0 \ PF: 1.7

• Gobert is 3rd in the whole NBA for his field goal conversion rate with 67.2%

Consider that the average across the entire NBA last season was just 46.6% to get an idea of how unusual that number is.

Gobert is currently experiencing some soreness in his right groin and looks unlikely to feature in their next game.

What Minnesota get right

The Timberwolves:

• Make joint-most blocks (BLK) in the Northwest Division per game with 5.2

• Most steals (STL) per game 8.3

What they get wrong

Minnesota:

• Take the fewest offensive rebounds (ORB) in the Northwest Division with 9

• Score the fewest 3-pointers per game (3P) with 11.1

• Have the worst 3-point conversion rate in the Division (3P%) with 34.6% scored

• Turn the ball over most in the Division, 16 times per game

• Give away most fouls in the Northwest with 22 per game

The Timberwolves are in the middle of a run of 6 home games and are already on a 3-game winning streak. Their next opponents, the Sacramento Kings might prove very challenging. Statistically, the Kings are marginally the better team, winning about 5% more of their games. Plus, they are on a 2-game losing streak themselves and will surely be looking to halt that slide and get back to winning ways.

Should be an interesting matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder \\

NBA Northwest Division betting odds progression:

@ 251.00 — @ 401.00 — @ 141.00 — @ 251.00 — @ 501.00

Jul 29th — Oct 27th — Nov 17th — Dec 16th — Jan 6th/30th

@ 151.00 — @ 1001.00 — @ 401.00 \\

Feb 14th/17th — Feb 27th — Mar 15th

NBA Western Conference betting odds: @ 301.00

NBA Championship betting odds: @ 501.00

• Record: 37-39

• Streak: 1 loss

• 22-16 at home

• 15-23 on the road

Current table positions:

• Northwest Division: 3rd

• Western Conference: 10th

• NBA: 18th

As one of the youngest teams in the NBA, Oklahoma Thunder certainly have the exuberance of youth on their side but might be lacking some cool heads at times.

Oklahoma's star player is undoubtedly the outstanding:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2022/’23 averages per NBA game:

• G: 45 \ GS: 45 \ MP: 35.6* \ PTS: 30.9* \ FG%: 51.3* \ 3P%: 36.6 \ FT%: 90.6* \ TRB: 4.8 \ AST: 5.6* \ STL: 1.7* \ BLK: 1.1* \ TOV: 2.9 \ PF: 2.6*

*Career high

Almost a clean-sweep of career highs so far this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is a scoring machine at the minute.

• 142 points across his last 4 games

The 24-year-old is in the running for the NBA Most Improved Player award with betting odds @ 2.38. 2nd only to Lauri Markkanen @ 1.73

In the whole NBA right now, Shai has:

• Most 2-point field goal attempts (786)

• Most field goals scored (421)

• Most free throws (414)

He is 5th in the NBA for his accuracy from the free-throw line with 90.6%

He has taken a combined 21 free throws in his last 2 games and missed just 2 of them. He also found time to provide 10 rebounds and 15 assists. He is in the form of his life right now.

What do the Thunder do right?

• They turn the ball over less than any other team in the Northwest Division. 8th best in the whole NBA.

• Most attempted field goals per game (FGA) in the whole NBA with 92.8

• The highest number of rebounds (TRB) per game in the Northwest Division

• Joint highest blocks (BLK) in NW with 5.2

Where do they fall short?

• Joint-fewest assists per game in the Northwest

• Worst field goal conversion rate (FG%) in the Division

Oklahoma have only 4 players that average double-figures in scoring each game. And Gilgeous-Alexander makes more than the next 2 combined. They lack any kind of depth in scoring at all and if he were to go out injured for a period then they would be in serious trouble.

The picture is not much rosier when it comes to playmaking and only Josh Giddey and Shai GA offer any real options there. Not nearly enough, as between them they get the same as the players who top the category.

At the time of writing, the Thunder are trailing to the Golden State Warriors (85-94 at the end of Q3)

After that, they play Houston at home and away, then meet the Warriors again.

Sitting in 11th position in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma Thunder have everything still to play for. The Division is tight, and so is the Conference. They can progress a significant amount if they can just up that win percentage a little.

A 3% improvement would see them climb 6 places

Have they go it in them? Time will tell...

*Key to terms:

G: Games \ PTS: Points \ FG%: Field goal percentage \ 

3P%: 3-point percentage \ FT%: Free throw percentage \ 

TRB: Total rebounds \ AST: Assists \ STL: Steals \ BLK: Blocks \ 

TOV: Turnovers \ PF: Personal fouls \

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