Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics NBA betting tips
We're going to focus on Player Prop bet tips for this one, but, we are also going to have a small bet on Chicago at odds of 7.50. That implies a probability of 13.3% win for Chicago, and our model put their realistic win rate at 20%-25%, which is quite some edge. Sure the Bulls will probably lose, but they'll lose 1 in 4 or 1 in 5, not 1 in 78 so we are priced in.
A quick peak at the stats backs up our bet. Bulls beat Denver last time out, Celtics lost at home to Houston. Celtics have a distinctly meh home record this season, 15-9, means they are losing 37.5% of home games. Bulls are 11-11 on the road.
A team with a 50% chance of a road win, playing a team with a 37.5% loss rate at home, at odds of 7.50, we'll take that all day long.
As it happened the Celtics won at a canter, thanks to a 41 point 2nd quarter and a 34 point double double from Kyle Porzingis, both facts killed two of our bets. Our other two player prop bet tips won. Vuc managed 18 PRA points, we'd tipped the Under 34.5, and Giddey got 20, we'd tipped Under 29.5. A wee loss for the day, but that was due to our value bet on the Bulls. A bet we'd have every single time..
Bulls at Celtics - Moneyline Bet Tip
- Tip: Chicago Bulls to beat Boston Celtics7.50
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics - Player Props Bet Tips
Nikola Vucevic (CHI) : Under 34.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds at odds of 1.94
This a massive target for Vucevic, we'd put him around 28-29 for this total. obviously if he has a great game and the Bulls win, our moneyline bet covers any loss here.
Kyle Porzingis (BOS) : Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds at odds of 1.87
Only exceeded this total in 1 of the last 5 games
Josh Giddey (CHI) : Under 29.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds at odds of 1.87
Strangely high total for a player who averages 25.6 this season, but has dipped to just over 24 in January, Bulls being huge underdogs won't help JG. However, like our Vucevic pick, if Giddey has a stormer, the Bulls will probably win, and we'll land our 7.25 tip
