Last updated: 5th April 2023
Current favourites:
Paolo Banchero @ 1.01
Jalen Williams @ 19.00
Walker Kessler @ 201.00
Bennedict Mathurin @ 201.00
Keegan Murray @ 501.00
Here are the favourites to take the coveted Rookie of the Year (ROTY) award for the ’22/’23 NBA season.
At The Jump Hub, we have assessed their chances as we see them and will update this article regularly to see if we were right...
Check out PlayUp for the latest live odds.
Odds are subject to change.
*See foot of article for key to terms used
Keegan Murray turning a few heads...
General update - 5th Apr 2023
As it is a dash to the finish between the same 2 players as our last update, let's check those side-by-side stats again now that they have a few more games under their belts:
Banchero vs Williams, April 5th '23
| Stats | Paolo Banchero | Jalen Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Minutes (M) | 33.7 | 30.3 |
| Points (PTS) | 20.0 | 14.1 |
| Field goals attempted (FGA) | 15.6 | 10.5 |
| Field goal % (FG%) | 42.7 | 52.3 |
| 3-point % (3P%) | 29.5 | 35.4 |
| Free throw % (FT%) | 73.9 | 80.9 |
| Total rebounds (TRB) | 6.9 | 4.5 |
| Assists (AST) | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Steals (STL) | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Blocks (BLK) | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Player fouls (PF) | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Turnovers (TOV) | 2.7 | 1.6 |
The bottom line is that Banchero is a way better scorer than Williams. They’re undoubtedly both rock solid and have fame and glory in their near futures if they continue to improve. But right now…Banchero looks the stronger of the two and we cannot really see far past him being crowned the NBA Rookie of the Year this season. But fair play to Williams for pulling it back into such a tight race from a position where the bookmakers gave him almost unbelievable betting odds of @ 501.00
They must be terrified at the thought of him actually winning...
General update - 28th Mar 2023
Paolo Banchero is very consistent with his rebounds and tends to average around 7 per game, seldom dropping below 6. His field goal conversion rate, on the other hand is all over the place. In March alone he has converted as low as 30% of his attempted field goals and as high as 67% of them. This makes for some sporadic scoring at times.
Jalen Williams is similarly up and down at times but has twice hit a high of 80% for the season. Both of these occasions were recently in March when he went 12/15 and 8/10 in field goals.
Let's take a look at their stats for the season side-by-side to get a better overall view of the 2 favourites to take the NBA Rookie of the Year award for 2022/'23
An interesting comparison. If Williams were getting a few more minutes then those points-tallies might be pretty close. As is, Banchero wins the battle for points but is much worse at converitng the chances he takes. He collects mroe rebounds but is not as effective as Williams from the free throw line. It's easy to see why these 2 are at the top of the list of favourites.
What's not so easy to see, and we have been saying this for months is exactly why Banchero is so hotly preferred. Has he had a strong opening season? Certainly. He has been rock solid and dependable for Magic. But has he been so far above the rest that he deserved to be the bookmakers 99% nailed on favourite since before Christmas? Not in our book...
Who would you choose?
General update - 28th Feb 2023
So the field finally narrows to just 4 players. Banchero sits where he has since the word 'go' and looks to be unassailable in the eyes of the betting markets.
Apologies to Jalen Williams for not having enough faith in him early on to grant him his own separate section.
Jalen Williams
@ 23.00 - @ 46.00 - @ 501.00 - @ 101.00 - @ 151.00 - @ 91.00 - @ 101.00 - @ 201.00 - @ 91.00 - @ 41.00
General update - 28th Feb 2023
The field is effectively down to just 7 players. Paolo Banchero remains the bookmakers' favourite but Matthurin and Kessler are hanging in there at @ 10.00 and @ 23.00 respectively.
General update - 10th Feb 2023
Paolo Banchero remains the runaway favourite to be awarded the NBA Rookie of the Year award this time around with betting odds @ 1.10
Only Bennedict Mathurin is hanging onto his coattails @ 7.00
General update - 26th Jan 2023
Walker Kessler pulls off a remarkable feat and finds himself the 3rd favourite to be named the NBA Rookie of the Year with betting odds that have gone from @ 501.00 a few short weeks ago to @ 34.00. He has managed this whilst averaging just 20 minutes of each of the 47 games he has featured in this season!
General update - 2nd Jan 2023
The betting markets still give Paolo Banchero a 90% chance of being named NBA Rookie of the Year and receiving the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy this season. His betting odds remain @ 1.11
Matthurin holds firm @ 6.50 and Ivey shortens slightly to @ 20.00
General update - 19th Dec 2022
Moving forwards, the Rookie of the Year will now be awarded the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy
Banchero with his shortest ROTY betting odds yet @ 1.11
Matthurin drops to @ 6.00
Ivey drops to @ 26.00
General update - 15th Dec 2022
No change at the top with Paolo Banchero @ 1.25 and Bennedict Mathurin @ 3.75
Although the betting markets still cannot see much further than Banchero or Mathurin, Jaden Ivey is hanging in there for now @ 23.00
General update - 7th Dec 2022
The bookmakers really only see this as a 2-horse race right now. Banchero and Mathurin are slogging it out at the top and Ivey is a long way back in the NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds
Paolo Banchero remains the bookmakers' favourite @ 1.17
Bennedict Mathurin @ 4.00.
Giannis Antetokounmpo drops one position @ 7.00. He is the current NBA turnover (TOV) leader
General update - 2nd Dec 2022
Paolo Banchero maintains pace at the top of the list with:
61 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in 106 minutes across 3 losing games
General update - 28th Nov 2022
Jaden Ivey picked up a right knee injury in a loss to the Phoenix Suns and has so far missed 2 NBA games.
Banchero returned against the 76ers and his ROTY betting odds still make him the firm favourite to take the award.
General update - 23rd Nov 2022
Paolo Banchero is out injured (left ankle). Ruled out for 5th straight game and there is no timetable to recovery as yet. His Rookie of the Year betting odds remain very strong @ 1.18
Mathurin back to 2nd favourite @ 4.30
Ivey shortens to @ 15.00
Murray lengthens further to @ 71.00
General update - 16th Nov 2022
Bookmakers are 88.9% certain that Paolo Banchero will be named the winner. His NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds are now @ 1.13
The previous 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favourites are now @ 51.00, @ 31.00, and @ 101.00 respectively.
Only Benedict Mathurin remains in single-figures @ 7.00
General update - 2nd Nov 2022
Howdy folks, just popping back to update the progress we've seen from the DPOY contenders so far. Check out the individual player analyses below for more details:
The headlines:
Paolo Banchero can do no wrong. His NBA Rookie of the Year odds even shorter now
Murray, Ivey, and Smith Jr. all have solid starts but do not look as settled early on
Bennedict Mathurin sets the pace when it comes to catching Banchero
The Jump Hub tip: (23rd Nov '22)
Bennedict Mathurin @ 4.30 (1* rating)
Best value odds bet:
Jaden Ivey @ 15.00
Paolo Banchero @ 1.01
Orlando Magic
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 3.00 — @ 2.20 — @ 1.13 — @ 1.18 — @ 1.25 — @ 1.17 — @ 1.25
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 25th Nov — 30th Nov — 7th Dec — 15th Dec
@ 1.11 — @ 1.07 — @ 1.08 — @ 1.07 — @ 1.10 — @ 1.07 — @ 1.01
19th Dec — 12th Jan — 26th Jan — 1st Feb — 10th Feb — 21st Feb — 28th Feb/5th Apr
Born: November 12th 2002 - Seattle, Washington
Measurements: 6’10” (2.00m), 250lb (113kg)
College: Duke
NBA Draft: 1st pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Power forward
Teams: Orlando Magic
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 39 \ PTS: 17.2 \ FG%: 47.8 \ 3P%: 33.8 \ FT%: 72.9 \ TRB: 7.8 \ AST: 3.2 \ STL: 1.0 \ BLK: 0.9 \ TOV: 2.4 \ PF: 1.9
Update: 28th Feb 2023
Paolo Banchero remains the bookmakers' only real interest for this season's NBA Rookie of the Year award. He has been a little sporadic with his rebounds in recent games, with a record of:
10, 13, 4, 1, 6, 6 across his last 6 games
He does continue to score well, with a recent record of:
11, 16, 22, 13, 11, 19 in his last 6 outings
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 54 \ PTS: 19.7 \ FG%: 41.8 \ 3P%: 27.7 \ FT%: 75.2 \ TRB: 6.6 \ AST: 3.6 \ STL: 0.9 \ BLK: 0.5 \ TOV: 2.7 \ PF: 2.2
Some slight improvements and some stats that have slipped but overall Banchero remains rock solid and it seems there will be no catching him for the NBA Rookie of the Year award this season.
Update: 2nd Jan 2023
Banchero has doubled his field goal attempts twice in his last 3 games. From 6 against the Lakers (1 scored) to 12 against the Pistons (4 scored), and 24 (7 scored) against the Washington Wizards. Terrible conversion rates on all of them. But he did manage 15 points and 21 points in his last 2 games respectively. 4 against the Lakers. The less said about that the better...
Update: 19th Dec 2022
51 points against Boston across 2 games in 3 days. Both wins, making 6 in a row for Orlando Magic
Paolo is getting heavy minutes for Magic and not wasting them. He is keeping the pedal to the metal and pushing hard to be named NBA Rookie of the Year
Update: 15th Dec 2022
Orlando Magic are all over the place this season. Currently 9-20, they recently had 9 straight losses, followed by 4 straight wins. One thing that remains consistent, however, is Paolo Banchero. He is 29th in the NBA for points per game and 48th for rebounds. No mean feat in a rookie season.
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 21 \ PTS: 21.8 \ FG%: 45.5 \ 3P%: 25.3 \ FT%: 75.1 \ TRB: 6.9 \ AST: 3.8 \ STL: 0.8 \ BLK: 0.6 \ TOV: 3.0 \ PF: 2.2
Banchero seems to remain constant no matter what and we have long said that consistency is the key to success in the NBA. We admit that we felt that the bookmakers might be jumping the gun by making him such a red-hot favourite so early in the season. But the more we see of him, the more we think they might have been right all along...
Update: 7th Dec 2022
Given that he missed every game from the 8th of November until the 26th, it is remarkable that Paolo Banchero is still the runaway favourite to take NBA Rookie of the Year this season.
In his last game, a 109-102 loss to Milwaukee, Banchero put in a sensational performance.
M: 33 \ PTS: 20 \ TRB: 12 \ AST: 7
He did give the ball away 4 times but it is easy to see why the market has retained confidence in him with numbers like those.
At The Jump Hub, we review the latest odds for the NBA futures markets, including one of the most popular NBA Futures bets, the NBA Most Improved Player Betting market.
Update: 28th Nov 2022
After missing almost 3 weeks, Paolo Banchero returned to the court for Orlando on Saturday (26th Nov) in a 107-99 loss against the Philadelphia 76ers.
His numbers were decent enough:
M: 36 \ PTS: 19 \ TRB: 4 \ AST: 3
He did spoil that a little by giving the ball away 4 times. Clearly, he is not yet back to his best form. But the betting markets still have ultimate confidence in him.
Even missing so many games, his NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds only dropped to @ 1.25
Update: 23rd Nov 2022
Banchero has not played since the last update and was just ruled out of a 5th straight game.
He has injured his left ankle and is out indefinitely. Stay tuned for developments.
Update: 16th Nov 2022
Well then. It's hard to know what to say here. The bookmakers have virtually given Banchero the ROTY award already this season. All other betting odds have dropped away, with one or two notable exceptions.
Banchero's stats for 2022/'23 so far:
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 11 \ PTS: 23.5 \ FG%: 46.1 \ 3P%: 25.6 \ FT%: 76.9 \ TRB: 8.3 \ AST: 3.6 \ STL: 0.7 \ BLK: 0.9 \ TOV: 3.0 \ PF: 2.4
Those are surely decent numbers. 8.6 assists are excellent along with those heavy points scored. But they're not great right across the board.
Certainly not good enough that we think he should be handed the ROTY award after having played just 11 games!
Update: 2nd Nov 2022
It seems that the betting markets have eyes for no one but Paolo Banchero when it comes to predicting the 2022/'23 NBA Rookie of the Year (ROTY)
He has 104 points in his last 5 NBA games. An average of 22.7 per game since the start of the NBA regular season! For a 19-year-old that's really rather remarkable.
Defensively he was superb against the Charlotte Hornets, taking 12 total rebounds (TRB), 10 of them defensive ones (DRB)
He also had 7 assists (AST) in that game but has failed to recreate that performance in his other games thus far.
A rock-solid start for a rookie and no mistake. But we are still a little baffled as to why the bookmakers have no time for any of the other contenders...
It might just be that the level of competition he is facing at the moment is not exactly filling them with confidence. We shall see.
Original text:
Paolo Banchero was a surprise No. 1 pick by the Orlando Magic in the NBA Draft. But we’re starting to see the wisdom of it as we look closer.
Banchero has superb athleticism. He is strong and fast. And he's a unit. 6'10" (2.10m) and 250lbs (117kg)? That's not a small guy.
A prolific scorer with a rock-solid defensive attitude. The Magic really lack a consistent top-level scorer. If Paolo gets the time and service he deserves, then he very well may be it.
Jalen Williams @ 19.00
Oklahoma City Thunder
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 23.00 — @ 46.00 — @ 501.00 — @ 101.00 — @ 151.00 — @ 91.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 30th Nov — 7th Dec — 15th Dec
@ 101.00 — @ 201.00 — @ 91.00 — @ 41.00 — @ 19.00
19th Dec — 26th Jan — 10th Feb — 21st Feb — 5th Apr
Born: April 14th 2001, Gilbert, Arizona
Measurements: 6’6” (1.98m), 210lb (95kg)
College: Arizona
NBA Draft: 12th pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Shooting guard
Teams: Oklahoma City Thunder
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 33 \ GS: 33 \ MP: 34.8 \ PTS: 18.0 \ FG%: 51.3 \ 3P%: 39.6 \ FT%: 80.9 \ TRB: 4.4 \ AST: 4.2 \ STL: 1.2 \ BLK: 0.5 \ TOV: 2.1 \ PF: 2.6
Update: 5th Apr 2023
Jalen Williams' progress this season has been nothing short of remarkable. He has seen his NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds go from @ 23.00 during the pre-season, all the way to an astonishing @ 501.00 a few short weeks later. Since then. he has hovered in the low hundreds and the bookmakers essentially gave him very little chance of getting anywhere near this award. Now, he sits @ 19.00 and is the only rival to the ever-present, seemingly unstoppable Paolo Banchero. It comes down to the 2 young men for the trophy this season and, although it seems inconceivable that Banchero will not be the winner after being the red-hot favourite from the very beginning of the season, stranger things have happened...
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 73 \ PTS: 14.1 \ FG%: 52.3 \ 3P%: 35.4 \ FT%: 80.9 \ TRB: 4.5 \ AST: 3.3 \ STL: 1.4 \ BLK: 0.5 \ TOV: 1.6 \ PF: 2.6
Bennedict Mathurin @ 201.00
Indiana Pacers
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 10.00 — @ 4.60 — @ 7.00 — @ 4.30 — @ 3.60 — @ 4.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 25th Nov — 30th Nov — 7th Dec
@ 3.75 — @ 6.00 — @ 9.00 — @ 8.50 — @ 6.50 — @ 7.00
15th Dec — 19th Dec — 12th/22nd Jan — 26th Jan — 1st Feb — 10th Feb
@ 9.50 — @ 10.00 — @ 41.00 — @ 201.00
21st Feb — 28th Feb — 13th Mar — 5th Apr
Born: June 19th 2002, Montreal, Canada
Measurements: 6’6” (1.98m), 210lb (95kg)
College: Arizona
NBA Draft: 6th pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Shooting guard
Teams: Indiana Pacers
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 37 \ GS: 67 \ MP: 30.8 \ PTS: 17.7 \ FG%: 45.0 \ 3P%: 36.9 \ FT%: 76.4 \ TRB: 5.6 \ AST: 2.5 \ STL: 0.1 \ BLK: 0.3 \ TOV: 1.8 \ PF: 1.8
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Update: 2nd Jan 2023
Mathurin has recovered from his pre-festive-season slump and hit decent points in his last 4 games.
15, 18, 23, and 15 in his last 4 outings
the middle two of those games were particularly good with 6-10 field goals (60%) and 7-14 (50%) respectively. He went 6-6, 6-6, 8-9, and 7-10 from the free throw line in those 4 games too.
We're not surprised to see him hanging on at the top of the list for the potential to be named NBA Rookie of the Year this season. The only real mystery is why Banchero remains so stubbornly popular at the top when his numbers do not really justify it...
Update: 15th Dec 2022
Mathurin is still favoured over all but Banchero in terms of his NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds @ 3.75
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 28 \ PTS: 17.6 \ FG%: 41.5 \ 3P%: 34.9 \ FT%: 80.1 \ TRB: 4.0 \ AST: 1.5 \ STL: 0.6 \ BLK: 0.1 \ TOV: 1.9 \ PF: 1.8
Here again, we feel that he has levelled out somewhat recently and not taken the bull by the horns in this race.
Nothing wrong with those numbers at all. Especially for a young rookie. But do they look like those of someone destined to take home the award for the best of the bunch? Not to us they don't.
Benedict'slast game was a particular disappointment. He scored only 9 points, took 1 rebound and nothing else save a foul and a turnoverin 28 minutes
Update: 7th Dec 2022
While Mathurin remains reasonably solid, he has not taken the opportunity to push Banchero over the last few games. With Paolo missing so many games, we had hoped to see Bennedict surge forwards. Actually, he has flattened out a little in terms of his stats.
November:
M: 28.5 \ PTS: 18.5 \ FG% 42.0 \ FT%: 78.8 \ TRB: 3.8 \ AST: 1.2
December:
M: 32.3 \ PTS: 12.0 \ FG% 29.3 \ FT%: 70.6 \ TRB: 3.0 \ AST: 1.7
When we consider that Mathurin had 4 more minutes per game in December, those numbers start to look even more concerning.
Update: 23rd Nov 2022
With the injuries to Banchero and Murray, we suddenly find Benedict Mathurin second-favourite @ 4.30
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 16 \ PTS: 19.2 \ FG%: 44.3 \ 3P%: 42.1 \ FT%: 82.5 \ TRB: 3.9 \ AST: 1.9 \ STL: 0.4 \ BLK: 0.1 \ TOV: 2.3 \ PF: 2.2
Those numbers represent a decline in almost every category for Mathurin. They are still solid but let's be honest; if other players weren't out injured they would not be nearly enough to be awarded the NBA Rookie of the Year.
Update: 16th Nov 2022
Mathurin is one of the only players that has not seen his NBA ROTY betting odds plummet in recent days.
So, what is the market seeing in him?
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 13 \ PTS: 19.9 \ FG%: 46.2 \ 3P%: 45.5 \ FT%: 83.1 \ TRB: 3.8 \ AST: 2.1 \ STL: 0.4 \ BLK: 0.1 \ TOV: 2.3 \ PF: 2.2
Need we say more? Go on then...
Excellent scoring with reasonable conversion rates from any distance. If he wasn't on the lower end of being solid defensively then we think he might be a genuine contender to usurp Banchero.
Update: 2nd Nov 2022
Mathurin started in the 'rest of the field' but has made an incredible jump from @ 10.00 to @ 4.20 in his Rookie of the Year betting odds. That puts him solidly as the second favourite.
He has been scoring for fun in his 8 NBA games so far. 91 points in his last 5 games and an average of 20.4 per game overall. Numbers that would concern any defense. With just over 4 rebounds (TRB) and 2 assists (AST) per game, he is going to need to improve to trouble Banchero in the runnings for Rookie of the Year. But he's not hurting his chances with those points.
Hopefully, the Indiana Pacers can find a few more minutes for him to let him stretch his legs and shine. Watch this space.
Walker Kessler @ 201.00
Utah Jazz
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 41.00 — @ 81.00 — @ 501.00 — @ 276.00 — @ 201.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 30th Nov — 15th Dec
@ 51.00 — @ 34.00 — @ 26.00 — @ 31.00 — @ 23.00 — @ 41.00
12th/22nd Jan — 26th Jan/ 1st Feb — 10th Feb — 21st Feb — 28th Feb — 13th Mar
@ 201.00
5th Apr
Born: July 26th 2001 - Atlanta, Georgia
Measurements: 7’1” (2.16m), 245lb (111kg)
Colleges: UNC, Auburn
NBA Draft: 22nd pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Centre
Teams: Utah Jazz
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 34 \ PTS: 11.4 \ FG%: 60.8 \ 3P%: 20.0 \ FT%: 59.6 \ TRB: 8.1 \ AST: 0.9 \ STL: 1.1 \ BLK: 4.6 \ TOV: 1.1 \ PF: 2.6
Update: 26th Jan 2023
If Walker Kessler had started enough games for his stats to be eligible, he would be 2nd in the whole NBA in terms of his field goal conversion rate. 71% is nothing short of staggering and only Nic Claxton betters that with a ridiculous 73%
Let's look at Kessler's other stats so far this season:
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 47 \ PTS: 7.6 \ FG%: 71.0 \ 3P%: 42.1 \ FT%: 55.1 \ TRB: 7.3 \ AST: 0.7 \ STL: 0.3 \ BLK: 1.9 \ TOV: 2.3 \ PF: 0.7
He is an exceptionally safe pair of hands when holding the ball. Giving it away just 0.7 times per game. He gets higher blocks than most players but still nowhere near as many as he did when playing college basketball.
The markets have eyes for no one but Banchero when it comes to dishing out NBA Rookie of the Year betting odds. But to have pulled back so close to the top after being so far adrift is impressive indeed and Kessler will have a long, successful future in the NBA if he keeps it up.
Jaden Ivey @ 71.00 \\*
Detroit Pistons
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 5.00 — @ 7.00 — @ 31.00 — @ 15.00 — @ 26.00 — @ 23.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 25th Nov — 30th Nov — 15th Dec
@ 26.00 — @ 20.00 — @ 51.00 — @ 46.00 — @ 61.00 — @ 71.00
19th Dec — 2nd/22nd Jan — 26th Jan — 1st Feb — 10th/21st Feb — 28th Feb
*Betting odds no longer available for this player
Born: February 13th 2002 - South Bend, Indiana
Measurements: 6’4” (1.93m), 195lb (88kg)
College: Purdue
NBA Draft: 5th pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Shooting guard
Teams: Detroit Pistons
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 36 \ PTS: 17.3 \ FG%: 46.0 \ 3P%: 35.8 \ FT%: 74.4 \ TRB: 4.9 \ AST: 3.9 \ STL: 3.1 \ BLK: 0.6 \ TOV: 2.7 \ PF: 1.8
Fire from Ivey...
Update: 15th Dec 2022
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 25 \ PTS: 15.3 \ FG%: 40.4 \ 3P%: 30.0 \ FT%: 72.2 \ TRB: 4.4 \ AST: 4.0 \ STL: 1.1 \ BLK: 0.3 \ TOV: 2.8 \ PF: 2.8
Jaden Ivey is hanging in the running with ROTY betting odds @ 23.00
His numbers are solid but not sensational. He's going to have to really pull out all the stops to challenge Banchero for this award. Certainly when it comes to his assists. In the last 5 games, Ivey has provided 3, 0, 5, 2, and 4 assists respectively. That's simply not going to cut it in this race...
Update: 7th Dec 2022
Another player who is failing to consolidate his position on this list. Let alone push for the top. Jaden Ivey has lengthened to @ 26.00. When we look at his number trajectory, we feel he might be lucky not to have dropped further...
November:
M: 32.0 \ PTS: 16.5 \ FG% 40.0 \ 3P%: 30.5 \ FT%: 75.9 \ TRB: 5.3 \ AST: 4.6
December:
M: 31.5 \ PTS: 13.0 \ FG% 33.3 \ 3P%: 25.0 \ FT%: 70.0 \ TRB: 4.5 \ AST: 4.5
Don't get us wrong. These are not horrendous numbers. They're just not the numbers of someone pressing to be named the NBA Rookie of the Year...
Update: 28th Nov 2022
Ivey is currently out with a right knee injury. 2 games missed at the time of writing. Further updates when available.
Update: 23rd Nov 2022
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 18 \ PTS: 16.2 \ FG%: 42.3 \ 3P%: 32.6 \ FT%: 72.7 \ TRB: 4.9 \ AST: 4.2 \ STL: 1.1 \ BLK: 0.3 \ TOV: 2.7 \ PF: 3.1
Despite a set of stats that have worsened in every metric bar one, online sportsbooks have shortened Ivey's Rookie of the Year odds to @ 15.00.
This response is surely more indicative of the collapse of his direct competition than any improvements he has made on the court. With Banchero out indefinitely and Murray collapsing in the stats, only Mathurin looks to be a genuine rival right now.
Update: 16th Nov 2022
4 straight losses, the last 2 at home, won't have helped Jaden Ivey's confidence too much. But his numbers are holding strong so far:
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 14 \ PTS: 16.0 \ FG%: 44.0 \ 3P%: 33.9 \ FT%: 73.8 \ TRB: 5.0 \ AST: 4.1 \ STL: 1.4 \ BLK: 0.4 \ TOV: 2.6 \ PF: 2.9
Ivey has been getting heavy minutes (34) per game in his last 2 outings. And he has repaid the favour by scoring 47 points in those games. In his last game (against the Toronto Raptors) he added 8 assists to his 21 points. Unfortunately, he undid some of that good work with 6 fouls and 4 turnovers.
Update: 2nd Nov 2022
With 74 points across his last 5 games, Ivey has started slowly in scoring terms. But he has been getting heavy minutes for the Detroit Pistons and has started all 7 games so far!
Glancing below, we see that we referenced his usage by the Pistons as something that might hamper his chances. Well, so far there was no need for concern. They seem happy to play the 20-year-old consistently and that can only help him massively.
He is taking rebounds regularly and looks capable of the occasional assist too. It would really help him to challenge Banchero if he could get those up. But that is a big ask for a young man just finding his feet in the NBA.
Original text
The only thing that will prevent Jaden Ivey from being a serious contender for Rookie of The Year is his usage by the Detroit Pistons.
Right now, he looks set to start next to Cade Cunningham and that can only help propel this young man into the big league.
His mid-range and outside shooting has improved significantly. Those points and assists look good to us too, and the markets agree.
Check out our analysis of Cost per Win for the NBA Season, where we discover if any other team can even come close to the Lakers in terms of money spent per win.
Keegan Murray @ 151.00 \\*
Sacramento Kings
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 5.00 — @ 7.00 — @ 51.00 — @ 71.00 — @ 126.00 — @ 151.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 24th Nov — 7th Dec — 19th Dec/2nd Jan
@ 176.00 — @ 226.00 — @ 176.00 — @ 101.00 — @ 201.00
12th Jan — 20th Jan — 22nd Jan — 1st Feb — 10th Feb
@ 151.00 \\
21st/28th Feb
*Betting odds no longer available for this player
Born: August 19th 2000 - Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Measurements: 6’8” (2.03m), 215lb (97kg)
College: Iowa
NBA Draft: 4th pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 22nd, 2022
Position: Small forward
Teams: Sacramento Kings
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 35 \ PTS: 23.5 \ FG%: 55.4 \ 3P%: 39.8 \ FT%: 74.7 \ TRB: 8.7 \ AST: 1.5 \ STL: 1.3 \ BLK: 1.9 \ TOV: 1.1 \ PF: 1.9
Update: 23rd Nov 2022
Fears about injury to Keegan Murray failed to materialise and he has now played in 13 games. The last 6 of them, winning ones. His scoring has been totally sporadic and unpredictable. In those games, he has scored as follows:
14 - 2 - 21 - 4 - 13 - 2 points
22/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 13 \ PTS: 12.1 \ FG%: 44.7 \ 3P%: 35.9 \ FT%: 78.6 \ TRB: 3.5 \ AST: 1.1 \ STL: 0.9 \ BLK: 0.7 \ TOV: 1.6 \ PF: 2.2
Murray's stats have fallen off a cliff. He is down in every category except free throw success rate. We were asking ourselves why one of the few fit and active contenders for Rookie of the Year did not see his odds shorten significantly when injury news came in about the others.
He didn't even see a blip but continued to decline towards irrelevance in terms of winning the award.
Now we know why.
Update: 16th Nov 2022
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G: 11 \ PTS: 12.0 \ FG%: 45.1 \ 3P%: 37.5 \ FT%: 77.8 \ TRB: 3.7 \ AST: 1.1 \ STL: 1.0 \ BLK: 0.8 \ TOV: 1.6 \ PF: 2.3
In a frankly quite shocking drop, Murray sees his ROTY Award betting odds drop from @ 7.00 to @ 51.00.
That's a 14.3% predicted chance down to a 2% one.
The improvements we hoped for in our last update have yet to materialise and the sportsbooks have obviously decided they're not going to come. The fact that he has been downgraded to 'Doubtful' for the next game cannot be helping matters.
Update: 2nd Nov 2022
Keegan Murray has not scored as heavily at the start of his professional career with only 87 in his last 5 games. But that is not an insignificant number
He has heavy minutes for Sacramento so far and very decent shooting percentages.
Field goals: 49.3%
3-pointers: 39.5%
Free throws: 85.7%
Even so, there is still a great deal of room for improvement. He has the next name on the list to contend with for a start...
Murray drops from @ 5.00 to @ 7.00 to take the ROTY award.
No reason for him to panic. He just has to keep doing the basics well and the rest will surely follow.
Original text:
We’re predicting heavy minutes for the young man with the Sacramento Kings. This can only help his confidence and give him the opportunity to shine. A genuine contender for ROTY and the markets reflect that.
Jabari Smith Jr. @ 276.00 \\
Houston Rockets
Rookie of the Year odds progression:
@ 6.00 — @ 13.00 — @ 101.00 — @ 276.00 — @ 176.00
Pre-season — 2nd Nov — 16th Nov — 30th Nov — 12th Jan
@ 226.00 — @ 276.00
20th/22nd Jan — 1st/28th Feb
*Betting odds no longer available for this player
Born: May 13th 2003 - Fayetteville, Georgia
Measurements: 6’3” (1.90m), 200lb (90kg)
College: Auburn
NBA Draft: 3rd pick, 2022
NBA debut: October 19th, 2022
Position: Power forward
Teams: Houston Rockets
2021/'22 averages per college game:
G: 34 \ PTS: 16.9 \ FG%: 42.9 \ 3P%: 42.0 \ FT%: 79.9 \ TRB: 7.4 \ AST: 2.0 \ STL: 1.1 \ BLK: 1.0 \ TOV: 1.9 \ PF: 2.1
Update: 25th Nov '22
Jabari Smith Jr. has been getting solid minutes for the Rockets.
2022/'23 averages per NBA game:
G:16 \ PTS: 10.9 \ FG%: 33.3 \ 3P%: 30.2 \ FT%: 83.3 \ TRB: 6.9 \ AST: 0.8 \ STL: 0.3 \ BLK: 1.1 \ TOV: 1.2 \ PF: 3.6
Update: 16th Nov 2022
None of the favourites has dropped further down the reckoning than Jabari Smith Jr.
From @ 6.00 to @ 13.00 and now @ 101.00
So what happened?
Well, his scoring has been poor. 10.1 per game with a conversion rate of only 31.5% is never going to win any awards. His rebounding is solid at 6.9 per game but unless the rest of his numbers improve dramatically, then we're looking at the end of his chances to take the NBA ROTY Award this time around.
Update: 2nd Nov 2022
With 55 points in his last 5 games, it seems that Jabari Smith Jr. might be struggling to find his feet offensively.
But he has solid numbers in defense. 6.4 rebounds (TRB) per game so far. Not bad at all.
He needs to get those fouls down, averaging almost 4 per game is never going to please the coaches But overall they can have no complaints about such a decent start.
One thing that he does have is a cracking 89% free throw percentage. That stat is helped by the fact that he had a 100% record in 3 separate games!
A total of 17 attempts and no misses. Tremendous.
If he can get his field goal (FG) numbers up to where they need to be, then he will be a force to be reckoned with.
Original text
Jabari Smith Jr. has a physique, mental attitude and overall game that should suit the professional level nicely.
He has size and athleticism on his side and is consistent in all areas of the game. Excellent points and rebounds with a very solid long-range shot in his arsenal.
There are not many arguments against him becoming the NBA Rookie of the Year that we can find. It might come down to how the Houston Rockets perform as a team.
Rest of the field
(odds progression: pre-season - most recent)
Jalen Williams
@ 23.00 - @ 46.00 - @ 501.00 - @ 101.00 - @ 151.00 - @ 91.00 - @ 101.00
@ 201.00 - @ 91.00 - @ 41.00 - @ 19.00
Shaedon Sharpe
@ 26.00 - @ 46.00 - @ 151.00 - @ 276.00 - @ 401.00 - @ 501.00 \\
Dyson Daniels
@ 31.00 - @ 51.00 - @ 501.00 \\
Johnny Davis
@ 34.00 - @ 51.00 - @ 501.00 \\
Jalen Duren
@ 34.00 - @ 61.00 - @ 501.00 \\
Mark Williams
@ 41.00 - @ 51.00 - @ 501.00 \\
Jaden Hardy
@ 51.00 - @ 51.00 - @ 501.00 \\
The Jump Hub tip: (pre-season)
Keegan Murray @ 5.00 (2** rating)
Best value odds bet:
Benedict Mathurin @ 10.00
*Key to terms:
G: Games \ PTS: Points \ FG%: Field goal percentage \
3P%: 3-point percentage \ FT%: Free throw percentage \
TRB: Total rebounds \ AST: Assists \ STL: Steals \ BLK: Blocks \
TOV: Turnovers \ PF: Personal fouls \ M: Minutes
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