OVER/UNDER BETTING
The over/under is the second most popular type of wager in basketball after point spread or ‘line’ betting.
In this article, we’ll discuss the basic concept of over/under, some variations on that theme.
Hopefully, we can show you how to research and implement your own over/under betting strategy and offer some useful NBA betting advice.
THE BASICS
As a starting point – in placing an NBA over/under bet (sometimes referred to as a totals bet) you are essentially predicting whether you think the total number of points scored by the 2 teams playing, when combined will be higher or lower than the predicted number.
Bettors wager their money on whether that combined score will go ‘over’ or ‘under’ the amount that the sports betting sites have set as their total.
So – if the over/under total is set at 220.5, you can choose to bet either way. If you think that the combined score will be above 220.5, then you opt for an ‘over’ bet and if you think it will be less then you bet ‘under’.
The extra 0.5 ensures that it has to be one result or the other, and the total points scored can’t land directly on the target.
THAT’S THE EASY PART
The true skill behind NBA over/under betting lies in making more than just a random guess, formulating some kind of NBA betting strategy, and actually basing your decision on some information.
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW.
The Jump Hub writes a daily betting review of all NBA games, and major NCAA games. We look at the pre game odds and the full NBA betting results including over/under betting, together with the game highlights.
PACE AND PLAYING EFFICIENCY ARE KEY
A team that tends to play at a slower pace is more likely to be forced to speed up their play against faster-paced teams than the other way around.
Faster play tends to mean more possessions and, consequently, more points scored.
Look at the average pace of both teams and try to estimate roughly how many possessions you think each side will have.
Use the available stats to check how efficiently they convert possession to points and then factor that into your NBA betting strategy.
Maybe a team that prefers to play at a slower pace meets another team that does the same after a run of games against faster-paced teams.
This could be the perfect time to bet on the under, as we might surmise that they will play within their comfort zone and enjoy themselves after several games of being forced to speed up against their will.
KEEP UP-TO-DATE ON INJURIES AND TEAM NEWS
Knowing the overall status of both teams’ rosters is crucial for NBA over/under betting.
It is good practice to be ‘in the know’ in general when betting on anything, but because who is or isn’t playing can have such a huge effect on the number of points scored in one game of basketball, it is particularly important here.
Injuries are common throughout any NBA season and so NBA teams have to be prepared for that.
AND SO MUST YOU
You need to pay attention to the latest reports and know exactly what is going on with the rosters of each team and if there are any injuries before game time.
The last thing you want is to bet the over on a game and find out that one of the two teams lost their highest scorer!
Trades are also important to look out for, as any significant traded players are likely to disrupt any momentum when they go.
Incoming players will not immediately be available to play, so the team is inherently weaker, albeit temporarily.
Suspensions keep key players out of games of course but watch out for their return. Over/under lines might not reflect any returning players at first, and that could potentially give you a slight advantage.
CONSIDER THE TEAMS’ REST PERIODS
Most teams tend to play the majority (about 60%) of their games with just one day of rest in between them.
Scheduling ‘Back-to-backs’ occur when a team is scheduled to play two nights in a row.
The competitive, physical nature of any NBA game means that such scheduling can be a severe drain on the team in question and that does not go unnoticed.
It shouldn’t be too much of a stretch for us to imagine that they generally displayed higher productivity and scored more after a day of rest than they did when playing on consecutive days with no rest.
THAT IS TRUE – TO THE TUNE OF OVER 2 POINTS PER GAME
Not a huge difference in play, but when it comes to beating the odds and creating an NBA betting strategy that might actually work…
THE DEVIL IS MOST DEFINITELY IN THE DETAILS
When betting the over/under, a lot of the games go really close to the predicted scoreline. Like, REALLY close.
Those 2 points might literally be the difference between a won or a lost bet.
If a team is about to play a game on consecutive days and the other has had one day of rest, then now we’re looking at 4 total points potential difference between them.
Oh, and let’s add in the fact that teams playing with zero days’ rest tend to concede more points per game too.
THE GAP WIDENS A FRACTION MORE
These things seem trivial and will not always prove to be accurate or helpful, but ignore them at your peril for they are not based on guesswork but on hard statistics.
HOW DO THE TEAMS GET MOST OF THEIR POINTS?
Paying attention to how a team makes most of their points can reveal some important clues when we’re looking at their consistency and the likelihood that they will score the same way again.
If a team takes and converts high numbers of 3-point shots then that’s worth noting. Yes, they are scoring more heavily when things go their way, but it’s easy to suddenly have a period where they struggle making tough 3-pointers.
That’s less likely when your main tactic is driving to the basket and setting up the 2-pointer. When you look at some other factors surrounding the game in question, like taxing schedules or any injuries, you may decide that it is a significant factor and adjust your bets accordingly.
PLAY THE BETTING MARKET
While it is certainly true that top betting sites are not in the habit of losing money and are generally very good at offering accurate odds, there is still some scope for shopping around.
It may seem insignificant if you look at each NBA game as an individual entity, but remember – this is a full betting strategy that you’re building and the small margins are where you’re going to sink or swim.
A +198.5 might not seem like a huge difference from a +200.5 in the grand scheme of things, but if you’ve researched well and are confident that the game will go over, then you’ve given yourself a free, extra 2 point cushion to help you on the way.
As an NBA bettor, you have no shortage of gambling site options and live betting opportunities. Even a few points difference on the NBA lines can mean much better dividends when your NBA betting strategy really starts to come together.
TEAM MATCHUPS
There are a number of factors that you need to look at when betting the over/under in a straight team A vs team B game situation.
Look at their past head-to-head matchups. Not just their previous game!
Go back as far as you think is prudent and consider the outcomes, final score, and any wider trends that suggest themselves. Dive deeper into the reasons behind any deductions you make and add any fresh findings to the mix.
Let’s say that team A is on a streak of five games where the total went over. That could be a trend that can bear some fruit. The trick is in gauging what you think the reasons are and whether they will continue to affect the team for the game you are about to bet on.
THAT’S EASIER SAID THAN DONE…
Watch out for opposing trends that could potentially contradict each other and ruin your findings. Also pay close attention to:
OFFENSE VS. DEFENSE
If your research shows that the two teams you are preparing to bet on are difficult to break down defensively, then there’s a good chance that the game will lean towards the under.
If it’s a game between teams who shoot from all over the court and pay less attention to their defense, then you may reasonably favour the over.
PLAYER MATCHUPS
Look at the rosters and opposing players.
Does either side have an obvious edge in a certain position that could lead to a mismatch and potential for high-scoring?
Does the high-scorer from one team face the best defender on the opponent’s team?
You’ve already been reading the latest news and injury updates so you should know where they stand physically.
Now use your increasing knowledge to predict who will gain the upper hand in any matchup and whether that will lean more towards an over or under outcome.
PARTIAL GAME BETS
You can narrow your over/under wagers down to a smaller portion of a basketball game.
You might decide to only bet on the first half’s action or you can even go down to a quarter.
It makes little sense to choose these bets unless you have a good reason to do so.
Perhaps you’ve noticed that the Blue team starts strong but then fades as their fitness flags towards the end of each half?
You know that their point guard has been struggling for form lately and has just had a bereavement in the family. They have had zero days’ rest since playing The Boston Celtics and it was a fast-paced, physical encounter that probably took quite a bit out of their legs which, in turn, will contribute to their tendency to drift off the pace.
IT GOES ON AND ON. HOW FAR YOU WANT TO TAKE IT IS UP TO YOU
If you’re like us, then studying and analyzing the stats in order to predict what will happen next gives you almost as much pleasure as watching the actual games themselves and is not a chore.
INDIVIDUAL PLAYER OVER/UNDERS
This is another form of what we often refer to as a prop bet. See our in-depth article about those here (LINK), but for now, let’s talk about how they operate in an over/under system.
When it comes to basketball over/under bets, one option is to bet on how many points you think a player will score in any given game.
The concept is identical to the one for team over/under bets and simply applies to one player instead.
Opinions vary as to whether it’s easier to predict how one individual will perform, as opposed to a full team, but we’re not sold on that.
One area in which we provide odds and analysis is the race for the NBA MVP (Most Valuable Player).
It is true that some NBA players are incredibly consistent and reliable in their scoring, but the betting line will undoubtedly account for that and restrict your chances of making decent money.
In the game of cat and mouse between you and the betting sites, you are pitting your wits, and your conviction in your hard-earned betting strategy against the might of their experience and the complexities of their algorithms. You’re going to need all the help you can get and so it pays to try and find an angle that has gone unnoticed and still gives room for a decent return if you choose correctly.
UNDER/OVER BETS ON OTHER PLAYER STATS
Other parameters can also be included when you’re betting on basketball over/unders.
There will often be options to wager how many rebounds a particular player will take, or how many assists, 3-pointers, etc…
Taking this concept one step further, there are also ‘combined’ under/over bets that stack them up.
So you might wager that the combined total of a players’ points, rebounds, and assists is over or under the predicted target provided.
This is going to really test your mettle and love of poring over the statistics!
REFEREE STATISTICS ARE A ‘THING’
Betting sites don’t overlook this, so nor should you when creating the ultimate NBA betting strategy. NBA officials can have a significant, if indirect, impact on the point total.
Personal fouls called by the referee lead to free throws, and therefore affect the points total.
Some officials call more fouls than others so it’s reasonable for bettors to take that into account if the next game they plan to wager on is to be refereed by one of the stricter referees.
As we have already stated, details hold the key to any successful betting strategy, and all accurate information that you can utilize has some inherent value.
REFEREES AFFECT NBA GAMES.
‘Twas ever thus and you need to account for it
DOES OVER/UNDER INCLUDE OVERTIME IN NBA?
Yes, for full game bets, over/under wagers include overtime.
It is also in effect for Moneyline wagers, and prop bets.
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18+ | You know the score | Stay in control | Gamble responsibly
FINAL THOUGHTS
Major sports betting in general, and particularly formulating and implementing successful NBA betting strategies can be a complex and frustrating business.
If you’ve progressed from point spread betting and straight bets, and have found yourself drifting towards NBA over/under betting, then it would serve you well to be prepared to do your homework diligently and keep up to date with the latest team news.
Particularly any injury news, and live betting lines.
It’s all well and good to want to buck the trends and become a contrarian bettor if it is based on some knowledge and well-founded gut instincts.
If it’s just to be different then the chances are you will limit your success.
Not all trends are as worthy of attention as others, of course, and they all come to an end at one time or another, but tread carefully.
PLAY RESPONSIBLY
There are certainly individuals that have learned how to play the game to their advantage and make decent money, perhaps even a good living from sports betting.
They dedicate themselves to the process, study hard and stick to a set of rules, or betting system that they have worked long and hard to produce.
Serious NBA bettors have no emotional preference for one team over another, and if their betting strategy says that they need to bet against an NBA team that they normally have an affinity for, then so be it.
There’s a huge difference between that and betting on your favorite team at the weekend for entertainment purposes.
Both are valid and there is no right or wrong way to gamble as long as you do so responsibly.
The golden rule, as we always say here at The Jump Hub is:
NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE
Give yourself fixed time limits when you are allowed to gamble and stick to them. Be honest with yourself if you aren’t able to do that. If you think you might have a gambling problem then please seek professional help as soon as possible.
You are not alone in dealing with that particular affliction and it is always better to talk to someone and address the issue than to allow it to go unchecked.
Too many lives have already been ruined that way.
