What are the odds of making it to the NBA?
Well…… it’s official.
PLAYING SPORTS PROFESSIONALLY IS TOUGH.
Like, really tough.
Statistically, it’s nigh on impossible perhaps.
In this article, we’ll take a deeper look at the trials and tribulations players face in even standing out from the high school crowd, let alone getting a sniff at the league.
There are numbers, odds, trends, and statistics – all to be consumed and digested in good time.
Unfortunately, there will always be a sneaking suspicion that it takes a rather hefty dose of luck too.
AND THAT’S SOMETHING THAT NO ASPIRING PROFESSIONAL SPORTS PLAYER WANTS TO HEAR…
Before we delve into this fascinating subject and look at the myriad factors affecting any youngster who has ever stepped foot onto a basketball court, I think we can all agree that there is an incredibly slim chance of them ever having any kind of basketball career.
EVEN IN THE LOWER LEAGUES OR AS COACHING STAFF
If we narrow that down further and ponder the odds of high school players going on to actually play basketball for an NBA team then the chances become very remote indeed.
IN FACT, THEY’RE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
Playing college basketball at a competitive level is one thing, and playing on a varsity team certainly isn’t going to hurt anyone’s chances of becoming a professional basketball player.
BUT IT’S GOING TO TAKE SO MUCH MORE THAN THAT…
It’s obvious that not just anyone can live the dream and the fact remains that you don’t just have to be an excellent player to make it all the way to the NBA, you need to be on a completely different level to almost everyone else!
And even then –
THAT REALLY JUST REPRESENTS THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG…
The other factors that come into play are numerous and highly complex.
Some of them are certainly controllable to a certain degree and others are not.
Physical attributes, passing ability, and fitness are surely keys to success, but in the high-stakes, over-the-top world of the NBA, mental and emotional strength are required too. ” />
BUT LET’S NOT GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES.
It’s time to take a closer look at some of the contributing factors involved and see if we can’t narrow down just what it is that a young man has to do to end up playing basketball in the NBA.
IT’S A NUMBERS GAME
At any given time, there are roughly 500,000 male high school basketball players in America.
Of that number, about 16,000 of them will end up playing basketball at a college level.
THAT’S ALREADY DOWN TO A 3.2% CHANCE.
ONLY 1 IN EVERY 30.
I think we can see where this is going right?
From hereon in the news only gets worse.
No more than 110 of those college players will ever play in the NBA for at least one single game.
That leaves us with a rather shocking –
0.022%
chance that any of those young men will ever become NBA players.
1 IN AROUND 4,500
Oh, and don’t forget – we haven’t even added in any foreign players yet!
HOW MANY PLAYERS MAKE IT TO THE NBA EACH YEAR?
Every year, only 60 players (two for each team) are picked in the NBA Draft.
Compared to the total number of eligible players this is an extremely low number
In the early years of using the new draft system, the teams would continue to select players until they ran out of players.
IN 1960 AND 1968 THE DRAFT WENT FOR 21 ROUNDS!!!!
There were 10 rounds in the 70s, then 7 in the 80s, and in 1989 the number was finally reduced to 2 rounds, where it has stayed ever since.
This gives the undrafted players a better chance to try out for any team.
CAN YOU MAKE IT TO THE NBA VIA A JUNIOR COLLEGE?
It can be done, however, as with everything we’re going to discuss here today, there is only a slim chance of success.
Junior colleges typically have less money in their coffers for their basketball and other sports programs so it’s usually not going to be an easy ride.
Obviously, you can bet that this is going to depend on the junior college in question and will vary wildly, but the general consensus seems to be that the facilities are likely to be sub-standard.
IT’S GOING TO BE A GRIND THEN
but one that might be worth contemplating if it works for the individual in question.
MIAMI HEAT FORWARD JIMMY BUTLER
chose this route, as did:
TORONTO RAPTORS FORWARD CHRIS BOUCHER
Another current NBA player to take the junior college route is:
SACRAMENTO KINGS CENTER RICHAUN HOLMES
HOW MANY NBA PLAYERS IN THE LEAGUE WERE UNDRAFTED?
So, there’s a difference between what people might understand as being ‘undrafted’
For example:
There’s a list of NBA players like Kwame Brown and LeBron James who were drafted straight out of their senior year of high school to a team, but that’s not what we think is meant by this question.
The Draft usually consists of several rounds and any basketball players that go all the way through the whole thing without being selected by any NBA team become unrestricted free agents.
THESE ARE THE UNDRAFTED PLAYERS WE’RE TALKING ABOUT HERE
These players are now free to sign with any team they choose, but that is obviously a lot harder than it sounds.
Once the picks are finished, most NBA teams have done all the business that they came to do and battled it out to secure the signatures of the best basketball player they can get their hands on.
THERE’S PRESUMABLY A REASON THAT THOSE PLAYERS WENT UNDRAFTED.
They simply weren’t as desirable to the NBA teams in the mix as the players who ended up being drafted.
Perhaps they hadn’t had the chance to show their skill set off in its best light.
That has to be hard to take, but it pays to remember that at this point they’re not just anyone who didn’t make a team.
The odds of even being in the position to be drafted are already astronomically high.
It may mean that they’ll be offered a lesser contract if they can manage to secure one at all, but
AT LEAST THAT MEANS ALL IS NOT LOST!
Even a ‘low-paid’ contract in the NBA is likely to be more money than most people could ever hope to attain, so it pays to swallow your pride and stick to the plan even if the NBA Draft doesn’t treat you kindly.
LAST SEASON 136 DIFFERENT UNDRAFTED PLAYERS APPEARED IN AT LEAST ONE NBA GAME.
That still represents a pretty long set of odds, but it shows that it CAN be done and there has actually never been a better time in the history of the NBA to try to break into the league in a different way.
PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES MATTER
The average adult male in North America is 5 feet 9 inches tall.
At the same time, the average height in the NBA is 6 feet 7 inches tall and the average weight is around 220 lbs.
IF YOU ARE UNDER 6 FEET 7 THEN YOUR ODDS OF MAKING IT AS AN NBA PLAYER ARE MUCH, MUCH WORSE.
That’s just a statement of fact and reflects the nature of the game itself, rather than any pre-loaded prejudices on the part of the NBA teams themselves.
The rim is 10 feet off the ground.
THE ODDS ARE THAT THE OTHER PLAYERS YOU WILL SHARE A COURT WITH ARE GOING TO BE HUGE.
It stands to reason that you need to be huge too, or extraordinarily gifted and athletic, to go up against them on any kind of meaningful, competitive level.
All the skill and hard work in the world won’t do you the tiniest bit of good if you are physically too small to play among the biggest and very best players in the world.
There are only one or two players in the whole of the NBA who are under 6 feet tall, and they need to work so much harder to prove themselves.
As point guard, there’s a chance that an exceptionally rapid and explosive player with bags of talent can light up an NBA game
…ESPECIALLY IF THEY POSSESS AN EXCELLENT BASKETBALL IQ AND VISION ON THE COURT.
Throw in superior passing skills and an ability to shoot and you’re getting nearer to being able to cut it, but if you are a smaller athlete then you may need to really push it to your limits to put on muscle mass and prevent yourself from being overpowered in defense.
AT 5′ 9″, NATE ROBINSON OF THE NEW YORK KNICKS IS A FANTASTIC EXAMPLE OF THIS.
He played a total of 618 NBA games as point guard and finished his career as an NBA player with a very respectable set of stats and the knowledge that he had made a significant and positive contribution to each of the NBA teams he played for.
NATE ROBINSON WAS PROOF THAT IT CAN BE DONE
BUT FOR THE AVERAGE PLAYER WHO IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHORTER THAN HIS COUNTERPARTS, YOU CAN BET THAT THERE’S JUST NO WAY IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN.
Everyone around you is going to be 6 feet 9 inches tall is playing this position so you have to ask yourself what it is that you have that a 6 foot 5 player or above doesn’t have?
What can you bring to a team that no one else can and make up for your lack of height?
There are simply too many people competing for such a small number of spaces and you would have to shine like the sun to get an NBA game at less than 6 feet tall.
So it’s fair to say that when faced with odds like that:
HEIGHT MATTERS A LOT
The Jump Hub is not only about the NBA. Here, we review some of The Best NCAA Basketball Teams.
Many modern teams will not pick a smaller player due to concerns about them being a defensive liability.
A much loftier player can take a shot over the top of you and there is not much that you can do to stop them.
REALITY BITES IN THE QUEST TO BECOME AN NBA PLAYER
The stark, unfriendly reality of making it to the NBA goes like this:
Even if you are lucky enough to have grown to a, frankly huge, 6 feet 9 inches tall and can jump like an agitated flea, you are far from being guaranteed a spot in this league. Talent, instinct, and physical aptitude are not enough to play basketball for an NBA team by themselves.
You have to want it.
LIKE, REALLY, REALLY WANT IT…
More than anyone has ever wanted anything.
And you have to put your money where your mouth is.
You’ve got to be as fit as anybody on Earth.
YOU’VE GOT TO EAT, SLEEP, BREATHE, DREAM, AND LIVE BASKETBALL
And even then, you probably won’t get it.
BUT YOU HAVE TO TRY ANYWAY AND NOT COMPROMISE FOR ONE SINGLE MOMENT.
Study every play in the book, practice every sleight of hand and feint. Shoot 500,000 hoops by yourself from every conceivable angle there is.
BLOW OFF THAT DATE, SKIP THE MOVIE, TURN DOWN THAT EXTRA SLICE OF CAKE
Don’t drink beer. Never use drugs. Don’t smoke.
You have to have the drive, motivation, and mental acuity to stay the course.
IT’S THAT SIMPLE.
Only the purest dedication will get you over the line.
Times have changed and the competition, as we’ve already established, is beyond fierce. what are you willing to sacrifice?
How hard are you willing to push yourself?
Can you forego the trappings and distractions of youth to stand out from the crowd?
It’s a lot to ask, but then the rewards are astronomical.
It’s easy for middle-aged men to sit here and think that we would be able to focus our talen and energies enough to succeed, if only we could turn back the clock.
And that may be true mentally.
We can see the long game of getting onto a professional basketball team from here and understand that the sacrifices will be tough, but that they will be worth it in the end.
But did any of us have that focus and drive at 18?
THE THOUGHT IS LAUGHABLE.
And then it makes us sad.
OF COURSE, WE DIDN’T HAVE THAT KIND OF FOCUS.
Unless you count the things that 99.978% of all young men are focused on at that age.
I’m sure we can all come up with an example of a player who took an easier path and still found their way from being playing on a varsity team at college to the NBA Draft.
They’re probably the kind of genetic freak who had the growth spurt of 10 guys put together and ended up being 7 feet tall.
Or someone who just excels at every single sport known to man and could quite literally turn professional at any sport of their choosing.
We’ve all come across people like that and wondered how they do it.
It seems they can effortlessly turn their hand to playing anything they like and still be the best.
WELL, THAT’S WHO YOU’RE UP AGAINST
Growth spurt or not
…AND MOST OF US AREN’T LIKE THAT
By the nature of the game itself, and the physical attributes it favours, many NBA players are lucky to have a natural advantage over other basketball players.
Playing basketball is clearly a lot easier if the rim is 3 feet above your head instead of 5.
That’s just physics and so any basketball team in the modern era will try to fill its roster with the tallest college players and get a win by default of being the biggest.
That’s a legitimate tactic, but not one that will always cut it in this league.
SURE, THEY’LL FILL A ROSTER WITH BIG GUYS, BUT NOT JUST BECAUSE THEY’RE BIG
They have to bring more to the table these days.
Players who want to have a long and fulfilling basketball career need to be versatile and intelligent with the ball.
They need to perform a multitude of roles as the circumstances dictate and be flexible and conscious of the greater goal and the betterment of their team at all times, not just their own personal achievements.
The league has seen its share of giants over the years, but being giant was just the thing that gave them an extra advantage, rather than their defining characteristic.
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INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS
There have been foreign giants of the past, both in stature and in terms of their influence on the NBA.
The current crop of overseas players plying their trade in the NBA is also showing that the USA does not have the monopoly on producing the highest quality basketball players.
GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO OF THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS
‘The Greek Freak’, as he has been nicknamed in the NBA, is the pick of the league’s current bevvy of foreign players.
At 6 ft 11 inches and 242 pounds Antetokounmpo certainly possesses the desirable physical attributes that we mentioned earlier.
His combination of size, speed, and skill means that he is virtually impossible to guard, and we the team here at The Jump Hub have had our eye firmly on him for a number of years, especially since researching our article about the Defensive Player of the Year betting odds (Antetokounmpo’s DPOY betting odds = 8.50).
Along with him in the running for DPOY went Joel Embiid of Cameroon (DPOY betting odds = 12.00)
Luka Dončić of Slovenia and Nikola Jokić of Serbia both join them in the running for this season’s MVP and the rich tradition of foreigners bringing their talent and experience to the USA and making the NBA all the better for it is clearly alive and well.
TO BE FAIR, YOU CAN’T REALLY MISS THE GUY
He’s huge, with a huge talent and genuinely impressive stats heading into this, his 9th season in the NBA.
As for the past, well there is a glowing history of overseas players making their mark in the NBA, but the list is much too long to get into fully here.
A couple of our personal favorites in The Jump Hub office include:
The 1990s saw Croatian wizards
TONI KUCOČ OF THE CHICAGO BULLS AND
DRAŽEN PETROVIĆ OF THE BROOKLYN NETS.
The pair set the NBA alight with their creative style of play.
TO BE FAIR, YOU CAN’T REALLY MISS THE GUY
He’s huge, with a huge talent and genuinely impressive stats heading into this, his 9th season in the NBA.
As for the past, well there is a glowing history of overseas players making their mark in the NBA, but the list is much too long to get into fully here.
A couple of our personal favorites in The Jump Hub office include:
The 1990s saw Croatian wizards
TONI KUCOČ OF THE CHICAGO BULLS AND
DRAŽEN PETROVIĆ OF THE BROOKLYN NETS.
The pair set the NBA alight with their creative style of play.
PATRICK EWING OF THE NEW YORK KNICKS AND ORLANDO MAGIC
was a Jamaican-born basketball player who contributed a huge amount too, and the list goes on, culminating, as far as we’re concerned with the best overseas player of all time:
HAKEEM OLAJUWON OF THE HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Nigerian Olajuwon was a prodigious talent and was virtually the complete package as a basketball player.
HIS SPEED AND ATHLETICISM WERE SECOND TO NONE
He was a top drawer defender, with unbelievable shot-blocking skills, and his unpredictability on the ball was the stuff of legend during 18 barnstorming seasons in the NBA.
Those lucky enough to be watching at that time saw him achieve an incredible array of accolades, including 2 NBA titles and an Olympic medal!
A TRUE GREAT OF THE GAME
This season’s NBA league boasts 109 players from 39 countries, meaning that over 20% of all players in the NBA come from overseas.
It makes things all that much harder for the home-grown talent we have here in the USA but nothing drives the desire to achieve harder than fierce competition.
LONG MAY IT CONTINUE
FINAL THOUGHTS
So now that we’ve crunched the numbers and focused on the skill, hard work, and talent that it takes to succeed (not to mention the advantage of great passing ability and a high basketball IQ) and come to the realization that it’s still not enough to guarantee a place on an NBA roster.
WE FIND OURSELVES BACK WHERE WE STARTED WITH THIS QUESTION:
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF MAKING IT TO THE NBA?
And it turns out that it is just as it seems at first glance.
The odds of making it and transitioning from a high school player with genuine talent to actually playing professional basketball as an NBA player are stacked against any athlete to an almost demoralizing extent.
Even being a genetic freak doesn’t guarantee anything, although it certainly doesn’t hurt!
NOR DOES MORE HARD WORK THAN YOU EVER THOUGHT POSSIBLE…
It takes a special, almost indefinable combination of physical capability, talent, and the right circumstances for it all to come together.
Maybe the planets have to be in alignment for it to work out if you believe that kind of thing.
The odds are against you, but…
…THAT’S WHY ONLY THE BEST CAN MAKE IT.
THERE IS A RIDICULOUSLY SLIM CHANCE, BUT IT’S A CHANCE NONETHELESS.
At The Jump Hub, we review the latest odds for the NBA futures markets, including one of the most popular NBA Futures bets, the NBA Most Improved Player Betting market.
Yes, it’s extremely difficult, but nobody ever said it was easy. If it was then we’d all do it.
PLAY THE ODDS. WORK HARD. LOVE YOUR BASKETBALL.
Even the best basketball player who ever lived had to start somewhere and at the end of the day
YOU JUST NEVER KNOW…
HOW HARD IS IT TO MAKE IT TO THE NBA?
It’s nigh on impossible and that’s part of what makes it the greatest league on Earth.
