Betting Results:
Head to Head: Pacers, odds 4.125 - a winning bet tip
Line: Pacers (+9.5), odds 1.904
Total Points: Under (239.5), odds 1.952

Pre-game Prediction
Pacers, 23.9%
Cavaliers, 76.1%

We had a superb winning tip on this game, our boffins spotted the value in backing the Pacers at 4.20, when they calculated that probability of a Pacers win was marginally better than 30%. We were therefore priced in to the bet.

Pacers end NBA-leading Cavaliers’ winning streak at 12 with 108-93 victory

By BRIAN DULIK Associated Press The Associated Press CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND (AP) — Andrew Nembhard scored 19 points, Pascal Siakam had 18 points and nine rebounds and the Indiana Pacers ended NBA-leading Cleveland’s winning streak at 12 games, beating the Cavaliers 108-93 on Sunday night.

The teams will complete the home-and-home set Tuesday night in Indianapolis.

Myles Turner added 15 points and 10 rebounds, and Jarace Walker had eight points and 12 rebounds off the bench to help Indiana win its sixth straight. The Pacers held the Cavaliers to a season low in points and outscored them 68-40 in the second half.

Cleveland lost for the first time since Dec. 8 at Miami. It is 33-5 overall and 20-2 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.

Darius Garland had 20 points and seven assists for the Cavs. Donovan Mitchell scored 19 points and Evan Mobley had 16 points and 12 rebounds.

Takeaways

Pacers: All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has appeared in all 40 games and is averaging team highs of 8.9 assists and 35.0 minutes, sat out the second half after experiencing left hamstring tightness. He had two points and five assists.

Cavaliers: Indiana coach Rick Carlisle raved about Cleveland’s depth and style under new coach Kenny Atkinson, saying, “They don’t have any weaknesses. I mean, you can’t find any. All of their guys can score and those guys play defense, too.”

Key moment

Immediately after the Cavaliers built their largest lead at 60-45 in the third, Indiana used a 32-7 run to seize a double-digit advantage. Backup power forward Obi Toppin fueled the surge with 10 points in a five-minute span, including a steal-and-slam in the backcourt.

Key stat

The Cavaliers, who are shooting a league-high 40.1% on 3-pointers, made just 11 of 41. They misfired on 15 of their first 16 attempts in the second half and finished with a season-low 26.8%. Mitchell and Garland combined for six of their makes.

This is how we previewed this game....

This is a value bet tip, we feel like the odds are pricing us in. Whilst we expect the Cavaliers to win the game, our modelling tells us that 34% of times, the Pacers would win this match up. The odds of 4.20 currently available on Indiana, imply a probability of 23.5%, so we feel our modelling shows us there is value in backing Indiana. We are in effect "priced in".

Looking at the form of each team, gives us some extra confidence that this is a good bet, both teams are 5 from 5, which is nothing to write home about for Cleveland, who are on a 12W streak, but is a solid sign for the Pacers.

The Pacers won! Snapping an incredible 12W streak for the Cavs, and giving us a tremendous 4.20 1-point winning tip. Returned $42 for a $10 bet.