Hang onto your hats and, perhaps more pertinently, your wallets. It's that time again.
Well, strictly speaking, it's months away from being that time, but we're like little kids who can't wait to open their presents.
For newcomers to the phenomenon that is the NCAA post-season tournament, check out our article 'What is March Madness?'
It is unique in the arena of sports and never fails to capture the imagination.
Let's take a look at the 10 favourites to win the tournament, according to leading online sportsbooks.
10) Arizona Wildcats
AP ranking: 17
Coaches’ ranking: 13
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 23.00
Despite losing a lot of talent from their roster in the off-season, the Arizona Wildcats are still the 10th favourite according to bookmakers.
The AP and coaches disagree and have them ranked 17th and 13th respectively.
The Arizona Wildcats are the current Pac-12 leaders, albeit after just 2 games.
With 5 players hitting double-figure scoring already, the signs look good. None are more impressive so far than:
Azuolas Tubelis (’21/’22: *M: 24.6, PTS: 13.9, TRB: 6.2, AST: 2.3, FG%: 66.9%)
Ok. So it’s a little early to start salivating. But in an average of 23 minutes per game, Tubelis put up some very impressive stats last season.
66.9% field goal success? Get out of here. If he keeps that up, nobody will stop them.
So far, he has done. In fact, he appears to be improving:
Azuolas Tubelis (’22/’23: M: 23.0, PTS: 20.0, TRB: 7.5, AST: 3.0, FG%: 76.2%)
Those are season-changing numbers.
Kerr Krisa (’21/’22: M: 29.6, PTS: 9.7, TRB: 2.5, AST: 4.7, FG%: 34.8%)
Krisa didn’t have the most electric season in ’21/’22. Those numbers are decidedly average, especially his field goal conversion rate. But, contrast that with this season:
Kerr Krisa (’22/’23: M: 22.5, PTS: 11.5, TRB: 6.0, AST: 9.5, FG%: 60.0%)
Those numbers aren’t hurting the cause either. 9.5 assists? Yikes.
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 78.6, TRB: 37.4, AST: 15.4, STL: 6.4, BLK: 4.1, TO: 12.5, FG%: 48.1%, *FT%: 72.4%, 3P%: 35.5%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 85.5, TRB: 44.5, AST: 23.0, STL: 8.0, BLK: 5.5, TO: 9.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 52.0%, 3P%: 38.1%
Betting
The betting markets currently give them a 4.3% chance of winning. Their March Madness betting odds are: @ 23.00
A decent price in our minds. We’ll have to wait and see, but a few heads in The Jump Hub office have been turned by those early numbers.
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9) Kansas Jayhawks
AP ranking: 5
Coaches’ ranking: 5
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 21.00 — @ 18.00 — @ 21.00
Current Big-12 leaders, the Jayhawks are the reigning NCAA champions. They swept all opponents aside at March Madness last season and must still be riding that wave of confidence and euphoria.
Both the AP and coaches have them ranked 5th most likely to repeat that success.
From our perspective, a lot of pressure and expectation is going to fall squarely on the shoulders of:
Jalen Wilson: (’21/’22: M: 29.4, PTS: 11.1, TRB: 7.4, AST: 1.8, FG%: 46.1%)
And so far, he is not disappointing anyone. Tearing it up this season with:
Jalen Wilson (’22/’23: M: 28.5, PTS: 20.0, TRB: 10.0, AST: 4.0, FG%: 45.5%)
We all know that ‘points make prizes’ of course. But those rebounds are going to be crucial moving forwards for the Jayhawks.
In ’21/’22, Wilson had serious competition within the roster for the most rebounds. He still led the pack (7.4), but David McCormack (7.0), Christian Braun (6.5), and even Ochai Agbaji (5.1) pushed him all the way. So, what’s the problem?
They’ve all gone…
That probably accounts for their 5th-placed ranking. And the fact that the bookmakers only gave them a predicted 4.8% chance of repeating their March Madness success @ 21.00
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 78.6, TRB: 37.4, AST: 15.4, STL: 6.4, BLK: 4.1, TO: 12.5, FG%: 48.1%, *FT%: 72.4%, 3P%: 35.5%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 85.5, TRB: 44.5, AST: 23.0, STL: 8.0, BLK: 5.5, TO: 9.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 52.0%, 3P%: 38.1%
Betting
The betting markets are clearly on the fence about Kansas’ chances after losing such key players for this season.
Given that they are the current title holders and are ranked 5th, those NCAA March Madness betting odds seem a touch long to us. They will likely only drop if those numbers stay strong.
Watch this space…
8) Baylor Bears
AP ranking: 5
Coaches’ ranking: 6
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 18.00 — @ 12.00 — @ 17.00
The Baylor Bears from Texas were the number 1 seed in the East Region of the NCAA March Madness tournament. But they could not overcome the number 8 seed, North Carolina Tar Heels. Going out to them in the 2nd round of the tournament.
The Tar Heels went all the way to the final and only lost to Kansas by 3 points.
One key player for the Bears is going to be the top scorer last season:
Adam Flagler (’21/’22: M: 30.7, PTS: 13.8, TRB: 2.2, AST: 3.0, FG%: 43.8%)
He is improving on that record this season:
Adam Flagler (’22/’23: M: 29.5, PTS: 19.5, TRB: 1.5, AST: 6.4, FG%: 65.0%)
A very nice set of stats, especially the improvement in assists. Plus a superb field goal conversion percentage. Clearly, that will drop over time. But, start as you mean to go on!
One freshman is also setting out his stall nicely. Only 2 games in but he already has good minutes and a very impressive number of rebounds:
Keyonte George (’22/’23: M: 29.0, PTS: 18.0, TRB: 5.5, AST: 7.0, FG%: 46.2%)
Baylor certainly look stronger this season. Progressing from 3 double-digit-scoring players to 4 (after 2 games, we know, we know)
Team averages per game:
(32 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 76.5, TRB: 37.1, AST: 15.8, STL: 8.8, BLK: 3.4, TO: 12.5, FG%: 46.4%, *FT%: 69.8%, 3P%: 34.6%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 102, TRB: 43.5, AST: 23.5, STL: 12.0, BLK: 5.0, TO: 12.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 66.2%, 3P%: 40.3%
Some interesting stats to absorb there.
Betting
Ranked 5th and 6th by the AP and coaches, it seems that the betting markets are unsure what to make of the Baylor Bears. Their NCAA March Madness betting odds dropped from @ 18.00 to @ 12.00 at one point. Back to @ 18.00 at the time of writing (15th Nov '22)
7) Duke Blue Devils
AP ranking: 7
Coaches’ ranking: 8
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 18.00 — @ 21.00 — @ 19.00
Losing the sensational, Rookie of the year contender, Paolo Banchero can’t have helped the Duke Blue Devils too much. But they have a talented roster and should bounce back. Freshmen such as:
Mark Mitchell (’22/‘23: M: 26.5, PTS: 15.5, TRB: 4.0, AST: 2.5, FG%: 54.2%) &
Kyle Filipowski (’22/‘23: M: 23.5, PTS: 12.5, TRB:11.0, AST: 2.0, FG%: 42.1%)
…are hitting their strides early and look very promising. We especially like the look of 11 rebounds from Filipopwski.
Sitting near the top of the stat table and bringing some much-needed experience to the situation is the junior guard:
Jeremy Roach (’21/’22/: M: 26.5, PTS: 15.5, TRB: 4.0, AST: 2.5, FG%: 54.2%)
(’22/’23: M: 29.0, PTS: 13.0, TRB: 3.0, AST: 6.0, FG%: 50.0%)
Those assists are going to prove crucial if the youngsters are to gel and make headway. It isn’t immediately apparent where a great deal more are going to come from. Senior Jacob Grandison seems to be good for about 3 every time he plays. But that is not going to be nearly enough to take the Blue Devils another step this season.
They were also victims of eventual finalists the North Carolina Tar Heels. This time, in the ‘Final Four’ national semifinals. Only missing out by 4 points.
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 80.2, TRB: 38.3, AST: 16.9, STL: 6.5, BLK: 5.5, TO: 10.2, FG%: 48.9%, *FT%: 72.9%, 3P%: 36.8%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 77.5, TRB: 48.0, AST: 17.5, STL: 10.5, BLK: 5.0, TO: 12.5, FG%: 44.9%, *FT%: 64.9%, 3P%: 34.0%
Betting
The AP and coaches have Duke ranked 7th and 8th respectively. That seems reasonable, given the extent of their player shuffling.
The betting markets seem similarly uncertain and have wavered around the @ 20.00 mark for their NCAA March Madness betting odds.
It is a cliché but we are just going to have to wait and see what happens. They are currently first in the ACC after 2 games. Exciting to see where they go from here…
6) Arkansas Razorbacks
AP ranking: 10
Coaches’ ranking: 10
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 15.00 — @ 21.00 — @ 16.00
The Razorbacks have lost a serious number of players. In fact, there are eleven new names in their roster. The most impressive of these, thus far has been:
Ricky Council IV (’22/‘23: M: 36.5, PTS: 18.5, TRB: 3.5, AST: 4.5, FG%: 53.8%)
That makes him the points and assists leader at this juncture. Rebounds are being capably handled by:
Trevon Brazile (’22/‘23: M: 32.0, PTS: 14.5, TRB: 10.0, AST: 1.0, FG%: 47.6%)
Twins Makhi and Makhel Mitchell have both been recruited to fill in some gaps. But the responsibility for the success of this season is still falling squarely on the shoulders of an influx of talented freshmen.
Team averages per game:
(33 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 76.9, TRB: 38.2, AST: 14.1, STL: 7.7, BLK: 4.2, TO: 12.6, FG%: 44.0%, *FT%: 75.3%, 3P%: 30.7%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 75.0, TRB: 39.0, AST: 13.5, STL: 12.0, BLK: 4.0, TO: 12.0, FG%: 47.5%, *FT%: 68.3%, 3P%: 23.1%
Betting
It seems like a huge gamble to us to pick the Razorbacks this season. They are a virtually untested, unproven team.
Frankly, we’re pretty stunned that the online sportsbooks have given them such short NCAA March Madness odds. Still, the Associated Press and coaches both rank them as 10th favourites to take the tournament.
What do we know?
5) Houston Cougars
AP ranking: 3
Coaches’ ranking: 3
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 13.00 — @ 9.00 — @ 11.00
Last season’s beaten South regional finalists at the Elite Eight stage, Houston are ranked 3rd this season. Currently first in the American Conference, after 2 games, certain players have already made their intentions clear:
J’Wan Roberts (’21/’22: M: 29.4, PTS: 11.1, TRB: 7.4, AST: 1.8, FG%: 46.1%)
…made a very decent fist of things in ’21/’22 and looks set to continue. Hopefully, he can push on a little too. Houston could really use some more assists and he’s not really pulling his weight there. He has not missed many shots from the field so far!
J’Wan Roberts (’22/‘23: M: 25.5, PTS: 15.5, TRB: 9.0, AST: 0.5, FG%: 82.4%)
Freshman:
Jarace Walker (’22/‘23: M: 30.5, PTS: 15.5, TRB: 10.0, AST: 1.0, FG%: 46.4%)
…has good minutes from the first 2 games. Very impressive scoring and rebounding. But we’re yet to see anyone who can provide the required assists.
Step up:
Jamal Shead (’21/’22: M: 30.9, PTS: 10.0, TRB: 3.0, AST: 5.8, FG%: 46.1%)
A solid season for Shead last time around. Big minutes with reasonable numbers. 5.8 assists are never going to set the world on fire, but it’s the best the Cougars could do in ’21/’22. So far this season, he has:
Jamal Shead (’21/’22: M: 33.0, PTS: 6.5, TRB: 2.0, AST: 8.5, FG%: 27.8%)
A drop in some of his numbers. But a gain where we wanted to see it with a very decent 8.5 assists per game. Maybe head coach Dana Holgorsen is on a similar wavelength to us…
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 78.6, TRB: 37.4, AST: 15.4, STL: 6.4, BLK: 4.1, TO: 12.5, FG%: 48.1%, *FT%: 72.4%, 3P%: 35.5%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 85.5, TRB: 44.5, AST: 23.0, STL: 8.0, BLK: 5.5, TO: 9.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 52.0%, 3P%: 38.1%
Betting
The bookmakers currently have them hovering around the @ 10.00 mark. Right down there with the favourites.
4) UCLA Bruins
AP ranking: 8
Coaches’ ranking: 7
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 12.00 — @ 14.00 — @ 13.00
The Bruins’ highest scorer last season:
Johnny Juzang (’21/’22: M: 29.4, PTS: 11.1, TRB: 7.4, AST: 1.8, FG%: 46.1%)
…is now a rookie with the Utah Jazz. UCLA only had 4 players with double-digit scoring averages last season. Of those, just 2 were retained this season.
Tyger Campbell (’21/’22: M: 32.4, PTS: 11.9, TRB: 2.5, AST: 4.3, FG%: 44.4%) &
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (’21/’22: M: 30.5, PTS: 13.9, TRB: 5.7, AST: 2.3, FG%: 47.2%)
Jaylen Clark (’21/’22: M: 18.1, PTS: 6.7, TRB: 3.8, AST: 1.0, FG%: 50.6%)
After getting just 18 minutes a game last season, Jaylen Clark is now the man that UCLA’s success seems to revolve around. He is already the team leader in points scored, rebounds, assists, and steals this season.
Jaylen Clark (’22/‘23: M: 28.0, PTS: 16.5, TRB: 7.5, AST: 4.5, FG%: 68.4%)
Those numbers have to represent one of the best starting campaigns of any player in the NCAA.
Steals are not included in the player stats here, but we have to mention them. Averaging 5.5? What? How? His nearest rival on the team has 1.0. That number will surely plummet as games start to come thick and fast but keep an eye on Jaylen Clark. We get the feeling he’s going to be huge.
Team averages per game:
(32 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 76.4, TRB: 37.1, AST: 14.0, STL: 7.0, BLK: 3.3, TO: 9.2, FG%: 45.0%, *FT%: 73.6%, 3P%: 35.1%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 84.5, TRB: 40.0, AST: 14.0, STL: 11.0, BLK: 5.0, TO: 12.0, FG%: 49.6%, *FT%: 72.7%, 3P%: 42.9%
Betting
The Bruins are sitting top of Pac-12 and will need to maintain good numbers and discipline if they are to top what is a very tough conference. Their stats look good through the first 2 games.
With NCAA March Madness betting odds hovering around @ 12.00 to @ 14.00, it seems that the sportsbooks fancy their chances too. Time will tell.
3) Kentucky Wildcats
AP ranking: 4
Coaches’ ranking: 4
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 9.00 — @ 12.00 — @ 10.00
Hotly favoured this season, we’re a little bemused here at The Jump Hub. The team failed to make it past the first round of the NCAA post-season tournament last time.
Not only that but the Kentucky Wildcats have lost 5 of their top 7 scorers in the off-season. They are still ranked 4th by both the Associated Press and the coaches’ polls but that is a lot of talent to lose.
But surely, no loss will be felt more keenly than:
Oscar Tshiebwe (’21/’22: M: 31.9, PTS: 17.4, TRB: 15.1, AST: 1.1, FG%: 60.6%)
The former West Virginian Mountaineer brought big things to the Wildcats. His stats were very impressive. Over 17 points and 15 rebounds will help take any team a long way if they can go with him. 60.6% field goal success over 34 games. That is quite remarkable.
In terms of replacing such a momentous player, Kentucky have one player coming in hot from Illinois State:
Antonio Reeves (’22/‘23: M: 26.5, PTS: 20.0, TRB: 2.0, AST: 1.0, FG%: 52.0%)
The problem is that Reeves can score big, but just look at those other elements of the game. 2 rebounds? Hardly a replacement for Oscar’s 15. 1 assist? Nope. They’re going to need to do a lot better than that.
Another player has the rebounds covered so far:
Jacob Toppin (’22/‘23: M: 30.0, PTS: 11.5, TRB: 9.5, AST: 2.5, FG%: 37.5%)
As for assists? Check out this guy:
Sahvir Wheeler (’21/‘22: M: 31.2, PTS: 10.1, TRB: 2.6, AST: 6.9, FG%: 44.1%)
Decent enough last season. This season?
Sahvir Wheeler (’22/‘23: M: 27.0, PTS: 11.0, TRB: 6.0, AST: 11.0, FG%: 57.1%)
11 assists and 6 rebounds in one game. And 11 points for fun. Tell us that performance didn’t get the pulses racing...
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 79.5, TRB: 40.3, AST: 16.1, STL: 6.8, BLK: 4.2, TO: 11.6, FG%: 48.4%, *FT%: 73.0%, 3P%: 34.9%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 85.5, TRB: 44.5, AST: 23.0, STL: 8.0, BLK: 5.5, TO: 9.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 52.0%, 3P%: 38.1%
Betting
Their team stats after 2 games are spectacular. We’re still not 100% convinced that they should be 3rd favourites but cannot really explain why. No doubt we will be proven spectacularly wrong very soon.
The betting markets assuredly know more than we do and currently have them sitting @ 10.00 to take the NCAA Tournament.
Technically, that makes them joint favourites at the time of writing.
2) Gonzaga Bulldogs
AP ranking: 2
Coaches’ ranking: 2
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 9.00 — @ 9.50 — @ 11.00
They’re off to a good start. 2-0 at the time of writing. 1st in the WCC.
One slight cause for concern. The team had 5 players in double-digit scoring averages last season. They lost 2 of those (Holmgren & Nembhard) This time around they only have 3 players hitting double-figures. YES, it’s too soon to infer too much from that. But, if you hadn’t noticed, this article is about a competition that doesn’t even start for another 4 months. We have no problems jumping the gun here at The Jump Hub!
The top scorer so far was also impressive for the Tar Heels last season. The talented:
Drew Timme (’21/‘22: M: 28.0, PTS: 18.4, TRB: 6.8, AST: 2.8, FG%: 58.6%)
To maintain over 58% field goal success across an entire regular season is very impressive. In fact, he is rock solid right across his stats and already powering into the new season. He is currently top for scoring, rebounds, assists, and blocks:
Drew Timme (’22/‘23: M: 31.0, PTS: 22.0, TRB: 7.5, AST: 3.0, FG%: 57.6%)
Ably assisted by top ball-stealing newcomer:
Malachi Smith (’22/’23: M: 30.0, PTS: 10.0, TRB: 5.5, AST: 1.5, FG%: 60.0%)
Impressive conversion percentage from the experienced Smith. He is also the steals leader so far. If he can continue to contribute in such a meaningful manner then the loss of the 2 big hitters will certainly be diminished.
Team averages per game:
(29 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 87.8, TRB: 41.5, AST: 18.2, STL: 6.7, BLK: 5.9, TO: 11.8, FG%: 52.7%, *FT%: 73.0%, 3P%: 37.9%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 84.0, TRB: 40.5, AST: 15.0, STL: 13.0, BLK: 4.5, TO: 16.00, FG%: 53.7%, *FT%: 71.1%, 3P%: 29.0%
Betting
Both the Associated Press and the coaches’ polls agree that the Bulldogs should be ranked 2nd to win the competition.
The betting markets seem ok with that prognosis and their NCAA March Madness betting odds are currently @ 11.00. Slightly longer than they started @ 9.00
1) North Carolina Tar Heels
AP ranking: 1
Coaches’ ranking: 1
March Madness betting odds progression:
@ 8.00 — @ 12.00 — @ 10.00
So, the North Carolina Tar Heels went all the way to the NCAA March Madness tournament final last season but came up short against Kansas. Just 3 pesky points between them and the pinnacle of any NCAA player or coach’s career.
This season, they are ranked first and deemed favourites to repeat the feat but manage to go one step further. They will need continuing top performances from the likes of top scorer:
Armando Bacot (’21/‘22: M: 31.6, PTS: 16.3, TRB: 13.1, AST: 1.5, FG%: 56.9%)
Highly impressive numbers last season. Heavy scoring and rebounds. Clearly, not a playmaker so he will need support from teammates there. The experienced 2x All-ACC player’s numbers look good again early this season:
Armando Bacot (’22/‘23: M: 31.0, PTS: 22.0, TRB: 7.5, AST: 0.5, FG%: 65.2%)
He will surely hope to get good service from:
Caleb Love (’22/‘23: M: 36.0, PTS: 21.0, TRB: 6.0, AST: 3.0, FG%: 48.3%)
Only a point behind Bacot in scoring but North Carolina’s top assist-merchant at the moment with 3 per game. Honestly, that’s not going to be enough to go all the way this season and they need to pick up their levels there.
Last season’s highest assist provider R.J.Davis has yet to come to the fore. But, if and when he does, he led the pack with just 3.6 assists per game last time around. For us. that is a very troubling statistic. There are teams on this list with players like Shaver Wheeler making 11 per game so far. North Carolina need to wake up and address the situation.
2 newcomers are yet to fully prove themselves. Seth Trimble and:
Pete Nance (’22/‘23: M: 33.5, PTS: 6.5, TRB: 2.0, AST: 2.5, FG%: 37.5%)
Nance has been getting heavy minutes but making very little of them.
The Tar Heels lead the ACC at the time of writing (15th Nov ’22)
Team averages per game:
(34 games total)
’21/’22 season:
PTS: 78.6, TRB: 37.4, AST: 15.4, STL: 6.4, BLK: 4.1, TO: 12.5, FG%: 48.1%, *FT%: 72.4%, 3P%: 35.5%
’22/’23 season: (after 2 games)
PTS: 85.5, TRB: 44.5, AST: 23.0, STL: 8.0, BLK: 5.5, TO: 9.00, FG%: 50.4%, *FT%: 52.0%, 3P%: 38.1%
Betting
The bookmakers clearly don’t have too many problems accepting the North Carolina Tar Heels as favourites to be victorious this season.
Their NCAA March Madness betting odds currently sit @ 10.00, down from @ 8.00
————————————————
Final thoughts
Clearly, there is a lot to take in when it comes to thinking about the favourites to win a national tournament like NCAA March Madness.
Especially so many months in advance and only 2 games into the regular season that precedes it.
But we find it fascinating. Even more so because the nature of college basketball means that players come and go with great regularity. We will update the article as time passes and honestly own up to and assess our many mistakes and complete misjudgements.
Pop back soon and see what’s new. In the meantime, thanks for reading.
Look after each other.
———————————————————
*M = Minutes
PTS = Points
TRB = Total rebounds
AST = Assists
STL = Steals
BLK = Blocks
TO = Turnovers
FG% = Field goal percentage
FT% = Free throw percentage
3P% = 3 point percentage
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