What are NBA betting trends?
It seems that the best strategy for betting on professional sports and hoping to win is to be prepared to work hard at it. The NBA is no exception to this.
In this article, we'll take a look at some of the powerful tools at your disposal and how much credence you should give to trends. Both those within individual NBA games and those with a much wider remit.
NBA basketball is a treasure trove of stats and facts and figures to use to your advantage. Your betting projections should be based on a combination of that statistical data, adjustments based on the roster situation of each team
And your own instincts
Of course, instinct takes time to happen. It’s impossible to nail down and describe accurately. But it is at the heart of any successful sports bettors ethos.
Now, that’s not to say that sharp bettors won’t bet against their instincts now and then. Nobody can know everything there is to know. Have studied every single possible permutation of each bet they make.
There simply aren’t enough hours in the day.
But in cases where the stats don’t cause their model to make them bet a certain way, instinct is all they have left. And those with the keenest instincts are, invariably, the most successful.
The key lies in comparing those projections to the actual betting lines offered by each sportsbook. Trawling through the lines to determine where the most significant disparities between your projection and the bookmaker’s lie.
As time passes, this is another area where instinct will kick in. Sharp bettors have a feeling for which online sportsbooks will offer the most value in any given situation. Whose lines tend to move the most. We’ll talk about what that signifies shortly.
What are NBA game betting trends and how can I make use of them?
There are 2 main aspects to what we are describing as betting trends.
Those that revolve around the actual amounts of money contained in all the wagers on any particular game.
And those that are concerned with the actual events and activities that create interest in all that action. The things that actually drive line movements and the total number of bettors who jump into any given betting market.
All sportsbooks have a system whereby every bet placed on a betting market is recorded and tracked. Bets on the NBA are no exception.
The shrewd bettor can use this information to see where most of the money is landing. There are different trains of thought regarding when to go with the public and when to bet against them (fade).
The general rule of thumb is that the general public tends to bet with their hearts and not their heads. Team loyalty plays a huge role and that is not an astute way to make bets.
In fact, sharp bettors will often shun their own teams when it comes to betting. They know that it is impossible to remain impartial.
Trends are something to be observed and absorbed. But not necessarily acted upon.
As interesting and revealing as trends can be, they are only an indication of what has happened in the past.
Without the context behind each particular win or loss in that trend, it is hard to take anything too useful from it.
Can trends for part of a wider sphere of investigation and analysis? Sure!
But to rely solely on them is to risk missing the bigger picture.
Let’s say that the Boston Celtics are 3-7 in their last 10 regular-season, on-the-road games. The markets are leaning towards another loss. Do we assume that the Celtics just aren’t that great away from home and bet against them?
We could. But why is this trend happening? There are follow-up questions that we need to ask before jumping to any conclusions. Here are a few that spring immediately to mind. There are surely many others:
Have they had roster issues and injuries?
Were the 7 opponents that defeated them expected to win those games?
How many of the road games were back-to-back?
How much travelling did the team do between venues?
Are they protecting their roster for a run in the NBA Playoffs?
NBA trends are also prone to providing sample sizes that are too large or too small to be effective.
Looking back beyond the point where most of the roster even played the game is hardly going to give us any dazzling insights.
Trends that base themselves on 2 seasons are probably not revealing enough, lacking the requisite number of games to be of any real use.
So, should you avoid giving credence to trends?
You should give exactly as much importance to trends and cycles of outcomes and stats as you do to every other aspect of your overall NBA betting model.
Namely, a little bit. Not more nor less than any other aspect of your research.
Don’t ignore them altogether. But don’t go big on a predicted outcome that you have no other information for.
The markets have sided with the Golden State Warriors covering the spread in their last 6 games. So what?
Who were those games against?
Were they at home?
Did the betting line make them home favorites?
Was there any bolstering of their roster beforehand?
Look at the reason behind the betting trend. Not the trend itself.
NBA stats
Statistics are a fundamental weapon in the arsenal of any sports gambling David hoping to bring down a bookmaking Goliath.
We are exceptionally lucky in that our chosen sport has a wealth of facts, figures, and statistics to pore over and analyse.
There is a literal ton of information about any and every aspect of an NBA team or player’s performance. Individually they tell us very little. But we hope by now that you have grasped the magnitude of this task.
The NBA does an amazing job of providing statistical information. Decide which aspects of it you feel give you the most relevant information for the next game you are contemplating laying a bet on.
Do we have teams with aggressive offenses?
How accurate are the shooters from either team?
Do they build pressure methodically and go long into the shot clock?
What is each team’s proficiency in snatching rebounds?
At what pace do the teams tend to play?
Are they more comfortable against faster or slower teams?
Which team covered the spread in their previous games?
What manner of victory was their last? Close, tight game?
How many consecutive wins does the team normally get?
What range of points might we expect to see?
The list of questions and stats that you can get your teeth into is colossal. But you will learn which ones you trust to tell you something useful towards determining your wager as you go.
You will undoubtedly find that you lean on certain stats more than others and that they will change depending on other factors. Taking into account the fact that the Timberwolves have only had a 1-day break, you might focus on their pace and how they counter-attack.
Maybe the home team, the Pelicans, have had a nice run of home games and have been bringing aggressive fast-paced action.
The permutations are for you to consider and weigh the value of. We certainly cannot complain that we do not have enough information to go on.
Quite the opposite...
Your own NBA betting model is going to get complicated and fascinating if you let it. Soak up and utilise as much data as you can and see the difference it makes to your efficiency.
The NBA season is long and with the extra NBA Finals games that follow, there is no reason not to try a variety of tactics and see what works best for you.
Determining the strengths and weaknesses of any team or player in the league can really help to inform our betting decisions. Mix in a touch of attention to NBA betting trends and voila!
The balance is a fine one and will need much tweaking as you progress.
But if you stay strong mentally, protect your bankroll, and do your homework, there is no reason it cannot succeed.
How do I decipher and use money percentages?
Money percentages (% of bets or % of tickets) refer to the total amount of money that is wagered on any given event. It is first broken down by bet type. Once that has happened, the percentage of money wagered on each side of the market is announced.
This can be very revealing and helpful.
If the percentage of money wagered on one side of the line is high, but the number of tickets is low, then that tends to indicate a lot of sharp betting.
Professional gamblers don’t mess around. They do everything they possibly can to predict an outcome and then they back themselves. If it means betting larger amounts to win back smaller ones (as when betting on the favourites) then so be it.
On the other hand, if the amount of tickets is high then we are probably seeing the actions of the general public. It is now your decision whether to fade them and go with the smart money, or follow your own research and instincts…
For a touch of clarity, be aware that sharp/professional gamblers certainly don’t win all of the time. In fact, they are lucky to see 53% of their bets win. So following them religiously won’t always help, especially if your bankroll prevents high stakes.
What they do is stick to their carefully worked wagering models and back their findings. They search for the best odds and values that they can religiously. But they only take those odds if the bet fulfils all their other criteria.
If this brings them even a modicum of success then their bankroll grows. As you now know (after reading the article), the more your bankroll grows, the more money you will be placing on each bet.
It will still represent the SAME percentage of your overall amount.
Investigate all aspects of your sportsbook website. You might also find references to ‘bet’ or ‘ticket’ percentage. This will only tell you the number of wagers that have been made on either side of the line. Not the amounts thereof.
You can combine the information to make certain deductions about where the sharp money is dropping. In fact, you can see the action of all the NBA bettors your chosen betting sites have attracted.
For example, if the Indiana Pacers have 82% of tickets to cover the spread but only 49% of the money, we can surmise that the bets being placed are for small amounts. Or that the bets on their opponents are larger.
Either way this tells us where the larger (and probably sharper) bets are landing.
Pay attention to the posted money percentages for any NBA game you've got your eye on. But, as always, keep that pinch of salt handy.
This formula for assessing bets is certainly not cast iron. But it can help to give an overall view of the financial situation of any given matchup.
Protect your bankroll
If you haven’t already done so, read our article ‘How to manage your bankroll in sports betting’. Seriously. It’s essential reading…
We are unanimous in almost nothing here in The Jump Hub office. Seriously, we can’t even agree on who hates the Knickerbockers the most. But we do agree on this:
If you do not protect your bankroll, you are doomed to failure.
Read the article. Do what it says. That is all...
Final thoughts
Here at The Jump Hub, we always say that sports betting should be done for entertainment purposes only. And it happens to be true.
If you are getting into the game (it's not a game) as a way to make much-needed money on the side then step away. Rethink your options. You are making a poor life choice that will come back and bite you if you are not careful.
There is no doubt that sports betting can bring great joy and excitement to life.
Many a sluggish NBA game that bored us, but that we couldn’t bear not to finish, has been suitably livened up by getting some ‘skin in the game’.
There is nothing wrong with a hobby that excites you and perks up your interest
That’s what hobbies are supposed to do!
But not all hobbies can drain you of your funds so rapidly. And none can make you feel so desolate when they don’t go according to plan.
One member of our team here is openly addicted to buying guitars. He knows that he has spent more money than he should have.
But those guitars are inherently worth something, even if he will never get back their full value.
His hobby gives him repeated pleasure and can certainly be expensive. But that money is not all gone in the blink of an eye.
And therein lies the difference
Gambling of any kind gives the participants that same euphoria that playing a Gibson SG does for him. Perhaps even more so.
But unless he drops it on its head and snaps the neck then the feeling of being gutted by a total loss is not lurking just under the surface.
It is a sensation unique to gambling and sports wagering in particular.
With the best will in the world, embarking on a sports betting odyssey is just not suitable for everyone. We’ve all heard horror stories about broken homes and people driven to bankruptcy and depression.
Those stories are REAL
Pay close attention to your wagering. Assess it regularly and give an honest appraisal. Is there a chance you might have a gambling problem?
If you’re not able to do that objectively, then ask a friend. Or a colleague you trust. Or talk to a professional. There are lots of places where you can have a judgment-free chat with someone experienced. You’d be amazed at how important it is to get some things off your chest.
Ask yourself a few questions:
Can I handle the emotional effects of losing money?
Can I afford to lose my money?
Do I trust myself to learn about bankroll management and exercise discipline in that regard?
Do I promise not to place bets under the influence?
What is my financial limit? How much will I add as a deposit if I lose my bankroll?
Can I refrain from chasing losses with rash, foolish bets?
Am I prepared to put in some time for research and not bet ‘blind’?
Do I have an addictive nature?
If I did have a gambling problem, would I be able to admit it?
Look after your mental health folks. Without it, we are nothing.
Don’t ever break the golden rules. They are:
Betting is for entertainment purposes only
Protect your bankroll
Never bet more than you can afford to lose
When the fun stops, stop
That’s it, folks.
Stay lucky. Stay healthy.
Take care of yourselves and each other.
