NBA Betting Model Excel

By Andrew D

June 14, 2022

Are you one of those people who has grown weary of being so disorganized?

It’s fine in general life I guess (it isn’t) but when it comes to sports betting it simply won’t do.

Do you feel like you’ve got a great instinctive handle on the NBA and often pick winning lines?

But you lack a system that can really help you make the most of your in-depth knowledge and feel for the NBA.

Welcome to our world

However, don’t despair. You’re off to a great start

Better than starting at the beginning and having an awful gut instinct on top of that right? Take the wins where you can – both mentally and physically.

Predictive sports betting models, algorithms, and all kinds of technological advances in computer modeling have become standard, ubiquitous tools in the sports betting world.

Bookmakers use them incessantly in order to determine and set their odds.

Sharp bettors use them to try and find any cracks and niches that they may have left unexplored. There aren’t many, to be honest, but it can be done.

If your enemy (the bookmaker) is using predictive modeling against you then it’s no good showing up to fight with nothing but gumption and a love of all things NBA.

You’re going to get creamed

The complexities and machinations of the betting world are growing faster and more destructive all the time. It is beholden upon you to keep up if you want to survive.

For most people (ourselves included), creating a sports betting model is a truly daunting, seemingly impossible task. Where does one even begin?

Well, we can’t lie. It takes a lot of time, research, knowledge, testing, and even dedication.

But once you are able to establish a betting model that you understand and that works for you? Boom! You’re in it to win it!

Anyway, enough waffle

Mmm – waffles…

To really start to see some tangible results when it comes to NBA betting you kinda have to get yourself a model. Or at least some kind of less-disorganized madness.

There are almost as many approaches and suggestions on how to build your own betting model as there are gamblers.

There is the old-fashioned brute-force approach that so many of us here at The Jump Hub employ.

Here’s a link to our article – ‘How to build an NBA betting model‘ for those of you who are kindred spirits.

It might not be the most effective, efficient way to approach the business of predicting NBA games but it’s all we’ve got and it has been moderately successful over the years.


By reading our thoughts on NBA betting models before attempting to apply some of the principles in a more modern, disciplined way.

We’re going to go ahead and assume that a spare room full of foot-high scribbled notes, defunct betting slips, and random scrawlings isn’t exactly what you’re hoping for?


You can really get down to it with some advanced statistics and learn a huge amount about how things play off against each other.

It’s more a love letter to the ethos of working hard and focusing on your goal than it is a guide on how to get it done. Whatever. Read it anyway then come back here.

There are lots of different sites online that will offer to help you build sports betting models (out of the goodness of their hearts of course)

The truth is that you can actually do it yourself

If you have even a fairly rudimentary understanding of Microsoft Excel then you are already in the game.

We aren’t about to start outlining how the actual mechanics of creating your own model with Excel will happen.
What we will do is to add some useful YouTube channel links below to direct you towards experts who can guide you.


When you’re serious about stat analysis then you need to create a process whereby you can compare numbers and performances at a glance.

Be prepared because a huge volume of information and data is going to pile up and need to be recorded.


One tactic is to collect all the data you can and then find patterns and correlations between different statistics.

For example, a member of our team spent an inordinate, some would say unhealthy, amount of time studying the connection between the total score and the effective field goal percentage.

On his deep dive into that world, he also stopped by at the crossroads between defensive rating, pace, possessions, offensive rating, and any other number of possible connections.

It’s really easy to make a tangled web of madness that can tell you nothing

But if you are smart and input your statistics into an effective NBA betting model excel file then you are going to feel like the world has opened up wide.


Sports betting models are everywhere now.
As diverse and unique as they can be, the principles and general structure are largely the same.

Input everything that the spreadsheet is designed to accommodate. From performance statistics and a team’s defensive rating – the metrics you choose will be key.

This is important –


Read that again

What’s the point in accumulating a load of statistics if you have no real feel for what they’re telling you, let alone how to use them predictively?

It makes no sense. There are myriad ways to approach sports betting models and only one that actually works for you is of any use at all.

Any betting model is a tool for you to wield as you would any other. If you’re a DIY enthusiast with abysmal skills then you’ll end up with a rickety pile of shite.


Whether you manage to be profitable comes down to how you assess the findings and act on them.

Remember, it is crucial to protect your bankroll at all times. Check out our article explaining why here – ‘How to manage your bankroll in sports betting

Now, all you have to do is base your decisions on the results of all those findings, choose your bets, and put your money where your mouth is…

Ok – here are some YouTube videos to get started:

Here are some links to sites that can show you effective NBA betting model Excel tips and tricks:

No excuses. Get on with it.

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